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Polymarket · on-demand contract read
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Contract tools
This reads one exact contract on demand. It does not add it to continuous collection, start a price history or create an independently verified Check. Reads may be reused for up to 30 seconds; the recorded times stay unchanged.
YES order book
Observed midpoint
Book identity & receipt
- Best YES bid / ask
- 82% / 83%
- Provider timestamp (raw)
- 1792124696785
- YES token
834988939366537589681339435844742816680296103724655311351481456389958777625- Book digest
2fa580917597465d72c2e203e95e99243079c4668839bd8d4ae50247507c8f0e
Midpoint is calculated only from a valid two-sided YES book. It is not an executable quote, a forecast, or evidence of settlement.
No source review for this market
The captured venue conditions below define this read. Start with these checks before drawing your own conclusion.
- Confirm the complete contract conditions on the venue; only its description is retained here.
- Read a current timestamped observation before comparing your estimate with the market.
- Add evidence for your own assessment. This venue context is not an independent source review.
One-time source collection
Inspect the evidence behind the contract
Collect exact source passages and export them with this contract’s identity. No sign-in required.
Recognized complete terms receive a rule-based reading, including supported Fed, GDP, Core PCE/Core CPI monthly and Bitcoin threshold contracts. Election pair readings are available in Compare. Standard collection reads the named Federal Reserve calendar, BEA GDP overview or the fixed PCE overview for recognized Core PCE terms. The PCE overview is context; the exact monthly figure still needs its release. The optional scope adds the exact official Fed decision, GDP release or selected PCE/CPI monthly release when available. Core CPI collection retains terms only until you explicitly request BLS release evidence. A candle query plan does not fetch candles. Other contracts retain their venue text and explain what is missing.
Price for your size
Read YES and NO depth, then estimate buying or selling a number of shares.
Venue-provided conditions
What defines this contract
Description & declared source
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Separate resolution rules
- No usable separate rules supplied
- Declared resolution source
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
- Scheduled end
- 2026-12-10 04:59:00 UTC
- Outcomes
- Yes / No
- Venue metadata updated
- 2026-10-16 04:21:07.079571 UTC
The text and source come from the venue. A separate reviewed Check applies only to its explicitly retained claims and context. Scheduled end, closed and inactive flags do not establish final settlement.
Retained conditions history, when available, comes from accepted HowSure catalog observations. This on-demand read is not added to that history.
Conditions history
Versions observed in accepted catalog snapshots. These times do not establish when the venue changed its rules. Earlier history and changes between observations are unknown.
Exact contract & metadata receipt
- Canonical market ID
polymarket:condition-sha256:e5ec6da01e23fac71f90ffab2baca2dc3853b5c9676a645b614ec706f2c0ca51- Condition ID
0x9b1a03b41a1a68c209e9c3caf3d8af3f878420d6dbe8cb8afffd66049e73b114- Metadata read at
- 2026-10-16 04:25:15.911 UTC
- Metadata digest
3ee45433d76614efa19b91df9d7fff44bedc7af17a234d31e54b9c3f26b89098
The digest identifies returned content, not its accuracy. Export this read to retain it; opening this route later may return a newer observation.