Back to Analysis · A separate current read of your selected contract. Historical and paused snapshots remain unchanged; returning opens the latest Analysis.
Polymarket · on-demand contract read
Will there be a Hormuz agreement, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
Contract tools
This reads one exact contract on demand. It does not add it to continuous collection, start a price history or create an independently verified Check. Reads may be reused for up to 30 seconds; the recorded times stay unchanged.
YES order book
Observed midpoint
Book identity & receipt
- Best YES bid / ask
- 4.1% / 4.7%
- Provider timestamp (raw)
- 1792121529646
- YES token
50691798286591555368696417344963171047666144170342422577833676293971524439124- Book digest
fb628c131793737e40aa33f044c0ada059b99fe57d43e7cad74b8d27a2152945
Midpoint is calculated only from a valid two-sided YES book. It is not an executable quote, a forecast, or evidence of settlement.
No source review for this market
The captured venue conditions below define this read. Start with these checks before drawing your own conclusion.
- Confirm the complete contract conditions on the venue; only its description is retained here.
- Identify the resolution authority named in the contract conditions.
- Read a current timestamped observation before comparing your estimate with the market.
- Add evidence for your own assessment. This venue context is not an independent source review.
One-time source collection
Inspect the evidence behind the contract
Collect exact source passages and export them with this contract’s identity. No sign-in required.
Recognized complete terms receive a rule-based reading, including supported Fed, GDP, Core PCE/Core CPI monthly and Bitcoin threshold contracts. Election pair readings are available in Compare. Standard collection reads the named Federal Reserve calendar, BEA GDP overview or the fixed PCE overview for recognized Core PCE terms. The PCE overview is context; the exact monthly figure still needs its release. The optional scope adds the exact official Fed decision, GDP release or selected PCE/CPI monthly release when available. Core CPI collection retains terms only until you explicitly request BLS release evidence. A candle query plan does not fetch candles. Other contracts retain their venue text and explain what is missing.
Price for your size
Read YES and NO depth, then estimate buying or selling a number of shares.
Venue-provided conditions
What defines this contract
Description & declared source
The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/urg.pdf
- Separate resolution rules
- No usable separate rules supplied
- Declared resolution source
- Not supplied
- Scheduled end
- 2026-11-04 04:59:00 UTC
- Outcomes
- Yes / No
- Venue metadata updated
- 2026-10-16 03:29:07.193849 UTC
The text and source come from the venue. A separate reviewed Check applies only to its explicitly retained claims and context. Scheduled end, closed and inactive flags do not establish final settlement.
Retained conditions history, when available, comes from accepted HowSure catalog observations. This on-demand read is not added to that history.
Conditions history
Versions observed in accepted catalog snapshots. These times do not establish when the venue changed its rules. Earlier history and changes between observations are unknown.
Exact contract & metadata receipt
- Canonical market ID
polymarket:condition-sha256:cd3de6ad65848560f7ff63c57f004afceecffec238d3afc88be009954c02ab74- Condition ID
0x45948551bc1850546ac61dd34699956b81244d5f733d9ad5d75f43442a58214e- Metadata read at
- 2026-10-16 03:32:10.696 UTC
- Metadata digest
fe498ac0dad3eb37cbc9705fba5dccb4dc04cf35822f579e23513294e9a8aeed
The digest identifies returned content, not its accuracy. Export this read to retain it; opening this route later may return a newer observation.