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Polymarket · on-demand contract read
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Contract tools
This reads one exact contract on demand. It does not add it to continuous collection, start a price history or create an independently verified Check. Reads may be reused for up to 30 seconds; the recorded times stay unchanged.
YES order book
Observed midpoint
Book identity & receipt
- Best YES bid / ask
- 3.8% / 4.1%
- Provider timestamp (raw)
- 1792124367375
- YES token
55302250828823180276187438149698246226978412434312478767847394628702439947936- Book digest
33a053fd09841c37fceb6c5dfb2935fa1465673e6dd877979fa58a4dd8501415
Midpoint is calculated only from a valid two-sided YES book. It is not an executable quote, a forecast, or evidence of settlement.
No source review for this market
The captured venue conditions below define this read. Start with these checks before drawing your own conclusion.
- Confirm the complete contract conditions on the venue; only its description is retained here.
- Identify the resolution authority named in the contract conditions.
- Read a current timestamped observation before comparing your estimate with the market.
- Add evidence for your own assessment. This venue context is not an independent source review.
One-time source collection
Inspect the evidence behind the contract
Collect exact source passages and export them with this contract’s identity. No sign-in required.
Recognized complete terms receive a rule-based reading, including supported Fed, GDP, Core PCE/Core CPI monthly and Bitcoin threshold contracts. Election pair readings are available in Compare. Standard collection reads the named Federal Reserve calendar, BEA GDP overview or the fixed PCE overview for recognized Core PCE terms. The PCE overview is context; the exact monthly figure still needs its release. The optional scope adds the exact official Fed decision, GDP release or selected PCE/CPI monthly release when available. Core CPI collection retains terms only until you explicitly request BLS release evidence. A candle query plan does not fetch candles. Other contracts retain their venue text and explain what is missing.
Price for your size
Read YES and NO depth, then estimate buying or selling a number of shares.
Venue-provided conditions
What defines this contract
Description & declared source
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Separate resolution rules
- No usable separate rules supplied
- Declared resolution source
- Not supplied
- Scheduled end
- 2027-01-01 04:59:00 UTC
- Outcomes
- Yes / No
- Venue metadata updated
- 2026-10-16 04:19:07.699601 UTC
The text and source come from the venue. A separate reviewed Check applies only to its explicitly retained claims and context. Scheduled end, closed and inactive flags do not establish final settlement.
Retained conditions history, when available, comes from accepted HowSure catalog observations. This on-demand read is not added to that history.
Conditions history
Versions observed in accepted catalog snapshots. These times do not establish when the venue changed its rules. Earlier history and changes between observations are unknown.
Exact contract & metadata receipt
- Canonical market ID
polymarket:condition-sha256:8abdbcaba9a4f038064c9541306046f032af1cabea8584ab696800e6b4bba5e8- Condition ID
0x8bdeac60c92d3bc494792fd334ca181b0cf70355f23dca4098d558280b554c81- Metadata read at
- 2026-10-16 04:19:34.994 UTC
- Metadata digest
7d6ebf7fd29ef2c9024e9c72868606f037062609e4a4fd25fda507ea22f1bd84
The digest identifies returned content, not its accuracy. Export this read to retain it; opening this route later may return a newer observation.