Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?

Best YES bid / ask

5% / 6%

Provider timestamp (raw)

1792138644776

YES token

89679274576913957866826708521874943247889602862058631422518032839391228465852

Book digest

a4d493b63bddaadb69c41750eaa050e74425a88f911234cbd3b5289876d16c56

Midpoint is calculated only from a valid two-sided YES book. It is not an executable quote, a forecast, or evidence of settlement.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabian Airspace (The Jeddah Flight Information Region (FIR)/OEJD) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before market creation; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before market creation, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region. A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Saudi Arabian government, including the Ministry of Transport and Logistic Services, the General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA), and Saudi Air Navigation Services (SANS), and a consensus of credible reporting.

Separate resolution rules

No usable separate rules supplied

Declared resolution source

Not supplied

Scheduled end

2026-11-01 03:59:00 UTC

Outcomes

Yes / No

Venue metadata updated

2026-10-16 08:13:07.083734 UTC

The text and source come from the venue. A separate reviewed Check applies only to its explicitly retained claims and context. Scheduled end, closed and inactive flags do not establish final settlement.