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Polymarket · on-demand contract read
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
Contract tools
This reads one exact contract on demand. It does not add it to continuous collection, start a price history or create an independently verified Check. Reads may be reused for up to 30 seconds; the recorded times stay unchanged.
YES order book
Observed midpoint
Book identity & receipt
- Best YES bid / ask
- 21% / 22%
- Provider timestamp (raw)
- 1792138693557
- YES token
10794185539938166264529978232135935848891793868408465101932418600198129428212- Book digest
ccaa56ce30cccff196b7b18b3d2f511a64cc9612dad81d8e7f56837ea6785726
Midpoint is calculated only from a valid two-sided YES book. It is not an executable quote, a forecast, or evidence of settlement.
No source review for this market
The captured venue conditions below define this read. Start with these checks before drawing your own conclusion.
- Confirm the complete contract conditions on the venue; only its description is retained here.
- Read a current timestamped observation before comparing your estimate with the market.
- Add evidence for your own assessment. This venue context is not an independent source review.
One-time source collection
Inspect the evidence behind the contract
Collect exact source passages and export them with this contract’s identity. No sign-in required.
Recognized complete terms receive a rule-based reading, including supported Fed, GDP, Core PCE/Core CPI monthly and Bitcoin threshold contracts. Election pair readings are available in Compare. Standard collection reads the named Federal Reserve calendar, BEA GDP overview or the fixed PCE overview for recognized Core PCE terms. The PCE overview is context; the exact monthly figure still needs its release. The optional scope adds the exact official Fed decision, GDP release or selected PCE/CPI monthly release when available. Core CPI collection retains terms only until you explicitly request BLS release evidence. A candle query plan does not fetch candles. Other contracts retain their venue text and explain what is missing.
Price for your size
Read YES and NO depth, then estimate buying or selling a number of shares.
Venue-provided conditions
What defines this contract
Description & declared source
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
- Separate resolution rules
- No usable separate rules supplied
- Declared resolution source
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
- Scheduled end
- 2026-12-31 23:59:00 UTC
- Outcomes
- Yes / No
- Venue metadata updated
- 2026-10-16 08:15:06.687298 UTC
The text and source come from the venue. A separate reviewed Check applies only to its explicitly retained claims and context. Scheduled end, closed and inactive flags do not establish final settlement.
Retained conditions history, when available, comes from accepted HowSure catalog observations. This on-demand read is not added to that history.
Conditions history
Versions observed in accepted catalog snapshots. These times do not establish when the venue changed its rules. Earlier history and changes between observations are unknown.
Exact contract & metadata receipt
- Canonical market ID
polymarket:condition-sha256:141aca9af67f6a5d03b6d4feb31473fb19e3e2310536814cdf53973a8fb0a923- Condition ID
0x9db8905bffc0df478b336591504245614c631976329df65efd7609f32167a693- Metadata read at
- 2026-10-16 08:18:16.154 UTC
- Metadata digest
73355c02591ba385b7ccc5dbe092e22efbaec07788829c6b55d1209c5ac9d0f2
The digest identifies returned content, not its accuracy. Export this read to retain it; opening this route later may return a newer observation.