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Polymarket · on-demand contract read
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?
Contract tools
This reads one exact contract on demand. It does not add it to continuous collection, start a price history or create an independently verified Check. Reads may be reused for up to 30 seconds; the recorded times stay unchanged.
YES order book
Observed midpoint
Book identity & receipt
- Best YES bid / ask
- 0.3% / 0.4%
- Provider timestamp (raw)
- 1792304072649
- YES token
41711691569751804818558577748447205160268649876376838114748265141137035561392- Book digest
46f8505145c81f0063383fd09efa7781de533883c7788923a8dfaab739bb6b2f
Midpoint is calculated only from a valid two-sided YES book. It is not an executable quote, a forecast, or evidence of settlement.
No source review for this market
The captured venue conditions below define this read. Start with these checks before drawing your own conclusion.
- Confirm the complete contract conditions on the venue; only its description is retained here.
- Identify the resolution authority named in the contract conditions.
- Read a current timestamped observation before comparing your estimate with the market.
- Add evidence for your own assessment. This venue context is not an independent source review.
One-time source collection
Inspect the evidence behind the contract
Collect exact source passages and export them with this contract’s identity. No sign-in required.
Recognized complete terms receive a rule-based reading, including supported Fed, GDP, Core PCE/Core CPI monthly and Bitcoin threshold contracts. Election pair readings are available in Compare. Standard collection reads the named Federal Reserve calendar, BEA GDP overview or the fixed PCE overview for recognized Core PCE terms. The PCE overview is context; the exact monthly figure still needs its release. The optional scope adds the exact official Fed decision, GDP release or selected PCE/CPI monthly release when available. Core CPI collection retains terms only until you explicitly request BLS release evidence. A candle query plan does not fetch candles. Other contracts retain their venue text and explain what is missing.
Price for your size
Read YES and NO depth, then estimate buying or selling a number of shares.
Venue-provided conditions
What defines this contract
Description & declared source
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- Separate resolution rules
- No usable separate rules supplied
- Declared resolution source
- Not supplied
- Scheduled end
- 2026-11-01 03:59:00 UTC
- Outcomes
- Yes / No
- Venue metadata updated
- 2026-10-18 06:09:14.224566 UTC
The text and source come from the venue. A separate reviewed Check applies only to its explicitly retained claims and context. Scheduled end, closed and inactive flags do not establish final settlement.
Retained conditions history, when available, comes from accepted HowSure catalog observations. This on-demand read is not added to that history.
Conditions history
Versions observed in accepted catalog snapshots. These times do not establish when the venue changed its rules. Earlier history and changes between observations are unknown.
Exact contract & metadata receipt
- Canonical market ID
polymarket:condition-sha256:895a8239586e60a981e1692ac0649d8e937b517cf2d3c2f2bf34bb0acadb594a- Condition ID
0xa61a17d0023386a38623bfe4724d1ec47b4b36bade94dd3e3cfc4ce79af9ba6a- Metadata read at
- 2026-10-18 06:14:51.125 UTC
- Metadata digest
9b7d46ab87e5e1980aa7c59fead3ddd474a48bc94bce4ffd000d3be96c13c5de
The digest identifies returned content, not its accuracy. Export this read to retain it; opening this route later may return a newer observation.