Back to Analysis · A separate current read of your selected contract. Historical and paused snapshots remain unchanged; returning opens the latest Analysis.
Polymarket · on-demand contract read
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Contract tools
This reads one exact contract on demand. It does not add it to continuous collection, start a price history or create an independently verified Check. Reads may be reused for up to 30 seconds; the recorded times stay unchanged.
YES order book
Observed midpoint
Book identity & receipt
- Best YES bid / ask
- 16% / 17%
- Provider timestamp (raw)
- 1792138616999
- YES token
55115078421062885512539156303747803058407616201213034911037320915726138659123- Book digest
c82b5f21d51b47cb3b24e5b2c6e84cb5e05aa02e7ddc1088e2b5cc9d31d11067
Midpoint is calculated only from a valid two-sided YES book. It is not an executable quote, a forecast, or evidence of settlement.
No source review for this market
The captured venue conditions below define this read. Start with these checks before drawing your own conclusion.
- Confirm the complete contract conditions on the venue; only its description is retained here.
- Identify the resolution authority named in the contract conditions.
- Read a current timestamped observation before comparing your estimate with the market.
- Add evidence for your own assessment. This venue context is not an independent source review.
One-time source collection
Inspect the evidence behind the contract
Collect exact source passages and export them with this contract’s identity. No sign-in required.
Recognized complete terms receive a rule-based reading, including supported Fed, GDP, Core PCE/Core CPI monthly and Bitcoin threshold contracts. Election pair readings are available in Compare. Standard collection reads the named Federal Reserve calendar, BEA GDP overview or the fixed PCE overview for recognized Core PCE terms. The PCE overview is context; the exact monthly figure still needs its release. The optional scope adds the exact official Fed decision, GDP release or selected PCE/CPI monthly release when available. Core CPI collection retains terms only until you explicitly request BLS release evidence. A candle query plan does not fetch candles. Other contracts retain their venue text and explain what is missing.
Price for your size
Read YES and NO depth, then estimate buying or selling a number of shares.
Venue-provided conditions
What defines this contract
Description & declared source
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
- Separate resolution rules
- No usable separate rules supplied
- Declared resolution source
- Not supplied
- Scheduled end
- 2027-01-01 04:59:00 UTC
- Outcomes
- Yes / No
- Venue metadata updated
- 2026-10-16 08:11:08.144071 UTC
The text and source come from the venue. A separate reviewed Check applies only to its explicitly retained claims and context. Scheduled end, closed and inactive flags do not establish final settlement.
Retained conditions history, when available, comes from accepted HowSure catalog observations. This on-demand read is not added to that history.
Conditions history
Versions observed in accepted catalog snapshots. These times do not establish when the venue changed its rules. Earlier history and changes between observations are unknown.
Exact contract & metadata receipt
- Canonical market ID
polymarket:condition-sha256:5074c415a55ac864142eec61a0a2be9191a826077c5be33db3277b1e16656eaa- Condition ID
0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846- Metadata read at
- 2026-10-16 08:17:05.692 UTC
- Metadata digest
cd5a19f6d9a981fdb98b594f6b88e0cf42fc28fd79fd1fdd5ac0fcc7a42ab95f
The digest identifies returned content, not its accuracy. Export this read to retain it; opening this route later may return a newer observation.