Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?

Best YES bid / ask

92.5% / 93.4%

Provider timestamp (raw)

1793316839876

YES token

15689686886751503596101237420370183711471277577409636291649038082667298900424

Book digest

2350d12c639a00eb270a4d5de2c35e6a123e682631233c28de319d1b8e7950d4

Midpoint is calculated only from a valid two-sided YES book. It is not an executable quote, a forecast, or evidence of settlement.

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?). The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31? This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/). 2. Which party will win the House in 2026? This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Separate resolution rules

No usable separate rules supplied

Declared resolution source

https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/

Scheduled end

2027-02-01 04:59:00 UTC

Outcomes

Yes / No

Venue metadata updated

2026-10-29 23:32:46.589679 UTC

The text and source come from the venue. A separate reviewed Check applies only to its explicitly retained claims and context. Scheduled end, closed and inactive flags do not establish final settlement.