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Polymarket · on-demand contract read
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Contract tools
This reads one exact contract on demand. It does not add it to continuous collection, start a price history or create an independently verified Check. Reads may be reused for up to 30 seconds; the recorded times stay unchanged.
YES order book
Observed midpoint
Book identity & receipt
- Best YES bid / ask
- 1% / 1.3%
- Provider timestamp (raw)
- 1792893361589
- YES token
438228197299155092123951605741577797243893462557265199678631512660798614549- Book digest
c1d04666acfd4b7faa1cdabcc03eacbfb83ecb660b92e3c8bfb4f685f5a3d070
Midpoint is calculated only from a valid two-sided YES book. It is not an executable quote, a forecast, or evidence of settlement.
No source review for this market
The captured venue conditions below define this read. Start with these checks before drawing your own conclusion.
- Confirm the complete contract conditions on the venue; only its description is retained here.
- Read a current timestamped observation before comparing your estimate with the market.
- Add evidence for your own assessment. This venue context is not an independent source review.
One-time source collection
Inspect the evidence behind the contract
Collect exact source passages and export them with this contract’s identity. No sign-in required.
Recognized complete terms receive a rule-based reading, including supported Fed, GDP, Core PCE/Core CPI monthly and Bitcoin threshold contracts. Election pair readings are available in Compare. Standard collection reads the named Federal Reserve calendar, BEA GDP overview or the fixed PCE overview for recognized Core PCE terms. The PCE overview is context; the exact monthly figure still needs its release. The optional scope adds the exact official Fed decision, GDP release or selected PCE/CPI monthly release when available. Core CPI collection retains terms only until you explicitly request BLS release evidence. A candle query plan does not fetch candles. Other contracts retain their venue text and explain what is missing.
Price for your size
Read YES and NO depth, then estimate buying or selling a number of shares.
Venue-provided conditions
What defines this contract
Description & declared source
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
- Separate resolution rules
- No usable separate rules supplied
- Declared resolution source
- https://lmarena.ai/
- Scheduled end
- 2026-12-31 17:00:00 UTC
- Outcomes
- Yes / No
- Venue metadata updated
- 2026-10-25 01:52:37.584124 UTC
The text and source come from the venue. A separate reviewed Check applies only to its explicitly retained claims and context. Scheduled end, closed and inactive flags do not establish final settlement.
Retained conditions history, when available, comes from accepted HowSure catalog observations. This on-demand read is not added to that history.
Conditions history
Versions observed in accepted catalog snapshots. These times do not establish when the venue changed its rules. Earlier history and changes between observations are unknown.
Exact contract & metadata receipt
- Canonical market ID
polymarket:condition-sha256:eda55f0287db0175b8109644df0499f7d9c0291bf9da1b9406083aa0ef4030ec- Condition ID
0x32c24495fa457397bd0b0be80bc7c11c9a6271cb8cee05a2bd9afaad0d7e21ec- Metadata read at
- 2026-10-25 01:56:15.193 UTC
- Metadata digest
4f9ecc3481b8385229a752a0e4c39931dc960a2fce5cfc5b472d324a787494d3
The digest identifies returned content, not its accuracy. Export this read to retain it; opening this route later may return a newer observation.