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Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

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Roster checked 2026-11-04 14:04:20.635 UTC

Outcome history

0 lines · 7 event outcomes · Polymarket YES prices · 5-minute sampling

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All contract conditions & event coverage 7 outcomes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market t…

Full venue event description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Venue scheduled ends · 6 dates
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  • 1 contract
  • 2 contracts
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Dates supplied by the venue. An end date is not confirmation of a result or settlement.

7Contracts in the venue roster
1In HowSure’s current catalog
—Two-sided quotes in the retained snapshot
No event capture yetFollow to start daily event snapshots

1 of 7 contracts have a retained midpoint observation. 1 currently fresh.

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About coverage & following

Each row is a separate contract with its own conditions. Following saves an event snapshot now and requests a daily refresh for My Brief. History begins with the first saved capture; these are daily observations, not continuous collection.

Prices are separate YES midpoints, not executable quotes or a normalized event distribution. They can come from different observation times. No price is inferred from another outcome.

Event outcomes

7 of 7 contracts · open a contract for its conditions and cost

December 31, 2026

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?

Collected catalog midpoint · fresh · 2026-11-04 14:04:01.636 UTC

3.3%YES midpoint
Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Declared resolution source
Not supplied for this contract
Scheduled end
2027-01-01 04:59:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-11-04 13:59:58.664849 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-11-04 14:04:20.635 UTC
Condition ID
0x176e84015b1cc54d470836ef1d8a60753e17fa232d9b55e9aa8dde580d03f436

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

September 30, 2026

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026

Venue reports closed

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Declared resolution source
Not supplied for this contract
Scheduled end
2027-01-01 04:59:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-01 20:51:31.093434 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-11-04 14:04:20.635 UTC
Condition ID
0x5c881188a151876e13d8bf67c36c03e34ce851bd5fbc2163288e9e45b93ef46c

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

October 31, 2026

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?

Venue reports closed

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Declared resolution source
Not supplied for this contract
Scheduled end
2026-11-01 03:59:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-11-01 06:04:00.05214 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-11-04 14:04:20.635 UTC
Condition ID
0x7846774d5a3d0e7ea41c74a0f84f8e50e657e1ffa20a8fdc0f36a5898eff6a90

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

November 30, 2026

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Declared resolution source
Not supplied for this contract
Scheduled end
2026-12-01 04:59:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-11-04 13:54:00.57926 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-11-04 14:04:20.635 UTC
Condition ID
0x38bb0395750dd925badadfbd86f9fc821a7855d090fbc9da34a9c676661dc0f1

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

March 31, 2027

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Declared resolution source
Not supplied for this contract
Scheduled end
2027-04-01 03:59:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-11-04 13:59:58.664849 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-11-04 14:04:20.635 UTC
Condition ID
0x32ce78136d1617c5e669a971da7f6e57b514094cc52c1332a40f76527a4cd968

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

June 30, 2027

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Declared resolution source
Not supplied for this contract
Scheduled end
2027-07-01 03:59:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-11-04 13:59:58.664849 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-11-04 14:04:20.635 UTC
Condition ID
0x17db0ed725e9e6d65dd1ae1cdb6e8c1828bde160e111520b369e5c917b5cd422

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

December 31, 2027

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Declared resolution source
Not supplied for this contract
Scheduled end
2028-01-01 04:59:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-11-04 13:59:58.664849 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-11-04 14:04:20.635 UTC
Condition ID
0x86e8c236e5c863140dfaf4c9b9e682fca3d6e627624df603b377d5ad9c57b991

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.