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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcem…
Full venue event description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue scheduled ends · 7 dates
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1 contract
1 contract
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1 contract
Dates supplied by the venue. An end date is not confirmation of a result or settlement.
7Contracts in the venue roster
1In HowSure’s current catalog
—Two-sided quotes in the retained snapshot
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1 of 7 contracts have a displayed price observation. 1 currently fresh.
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About coverage & following
Each row is a separate contract with its own conditions. Following saves an event snapshot now and requests a daily refresh for My Brief. History begins with the first saved capture; these are daily observations, not continuous collection.
Prices are separate YES midpoints, not executable quotes or a normalized event distribution. They can come from different observation times. No price is inferred from another outcome.
Event outcomes
7 of 7 contracts · open a contract for its conditions and cost
May 31
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Venue reports closed
Not collected · Not supplied
—YES midpoint unavailable
No matching book observation was retained for this contract.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.
July 31
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
Venue reports closed
Not collected · Not supplied
—YES midpoint unavailable
No matching book observation was retained for this contract.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.
August 31
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by August 31, 2026?
Venue reports closed
Not collected · Not supplied
—YES midpoint unavailable
No matching book observation was retained for this contract.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.
October 31
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?
Not collected · Not supplied
—YES midpoint unavailable
No matching book observation was retained for this contract.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.
April 30
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Venue reports closed
Not collected · Not supplied
—YES midpoint unavailable
No matching book observation was retained for this contract.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.
June 30
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Venue reports closed
Not collected · Not supplied
—YES midpoint unavailable
No matching book observation was retained for this contract.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.
December 31
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Collected catalog midpoint · fresh · 2026-10-16 02:49:34.735 UTC
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.