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Which company has the best AI model end of October?

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Roster checked 2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC

Outcome history

0 lines · 32 event outcomes · Polymarket YES prices · 5-minute sampling

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All contract conditions & event coverage 32 outcomes

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at h…

Full venue event description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Venue scheduled ends · 3 dates
  • 20 contracts
  • 11 contracts
  • 1 contract

Dates supplied by the venue. An end date is not confirmation of a result or settlement.

32Contracts in the venue roster
0In HowSure’s current catalog
—Two-sided quotes in the retained snapshot
No event capture yetFollow to start daily event snapshots

0 of 32 contracts have a retained midpoint observation. 0 currently fresh.

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About coverage & following

Each row is a separate contract with its own conditions. Following saves an event snapshot now and requests a daily refresh for My Brief. History begins with the first saved capture; these are daily observations, not continuous collection.

Prices are separate YES midpoints, not executable quotes or a normalized event distribution. They can come from different observation times. No price is inferred from another outcome.

Event outcomes

32 of 32 contracts · open a contract for its conditions and cost

Anthropic

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 16:00:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-17 21:45:15.887178 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0x8091d617a6b1a70847d357f59b7d1d303b7599d376ba92729705e233b3716940

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Meta

Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-11-01 03:59:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-17 21:37:15.455409 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0x1cf218efb6ef7336fd0f60cca5c4b9e7ffcc6263359fa1827b84ef2d96fd982b

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Google

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 16:00:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-17 21:45:15.887178 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0x23858cc44dce48e23f754240a0a71595f38f5c66d9a0eaf612eb5a737ad1e66d

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Alibaba

Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 16:00:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-17 21:37:15.455409 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0x08fcceb9a490332da07f63af3fb65f5816e441794964f3bb3ffb64845854d393

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Moonshot

Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 16:00:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-17 21:43:14.832389 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0x8f8ef3a633188c4630a9520d14f9d5cb1eca5da219e3071ac4777a7ec8849bb3

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

OpenAI

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 16:00:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-17 21:45:15.887178 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0xadf826589a83573dbb33c5fcfcfac6fd3d472dfa4a0a0779cb9491dbcb8e9223

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Baidu

Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 16:00:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-17 21:31:15.685442 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0x36b76a6c7f259e5049a9f56664e90566d743d8cc8c6894c3d624c9ffe474c4db

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Z.ai

Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 16:00:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-17 21:45:15.887178 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0x936e9214622d008a19009118d5baa2803af8dd61ade36928b4051d16feec56ca

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Xiaomi

Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 16:00:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-17 21:45:15.887178 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0x7ebfc8b7f5ff922d0bca14491b4ee7fa000c385c625f1e105554480e7e2e01d5

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

SpaceXAI

Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 16:00:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-17 21:45:15.887178 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0x962465dcc3c36bee9631f0d0bf56d9ab9713f936287038962a44040c0dbd30ad

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

DeepSeek

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 16:00:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-17 21:45:15.887178 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0xb15c88021fa0ba847a620186522d4ebc4199815bd534f54e1d7785971d494ae4

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Amazon

Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 16:00:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-17 21:33:16.033846 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0x385a6dff135bdce30f5ce415c64fbe3d408f4ce5968598e688891804879cb732

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

ByteDance

Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 16:00:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-17 21:45:15.887178 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0x73a2427ea525844a8bd20096e1bb6968033b6daa329f56787dcad27670af2b6a

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Nvidia

Will Nvidia have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 16:00:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-17 21:43:14.832389 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0x0aa84811f7db149ad9f76009b38cf3cc535d705e6cf6f3e148e1ef4d13bc0b50

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Thinky

Will Thinky have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 16:00:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-17 21:39:15.170537 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0x9816afbfa2ca4955c1940ef990960a0007d492fe4e61cfe2795b22d159706032

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

MiniMax

Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 16:00:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-17 21:43:14.832389 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0xc7454461a0ff3cc911225012022268d974b3ebc89b9e13dc4e22ac05493c6b4a

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Mistral

Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 16:00:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-17 21:45:15.887178 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0x10752ad277ad3f795280c3bc9bf93b6e81aaabf40b1943558005fdc6f09f9fe5

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Meituan

Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 16:00:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-17 21:45:15.887178 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0x276a079c31046b59d09d28ebbd3b898ab3a27a3b473f5aee3e84f970cf386a56

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Tencent

Will Tencent have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 16:00:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-17 21:45:15.887178 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0x31528e5406134013f6aa935d8cc509910f85c7f5958873c2ca17f07795995870

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

StepFun

Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 16:00:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-17 21:29:14.12153 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0xa8cf030906dc12fe5b241d27e31aa5f961d1a45bdabd6af69fe2061be308cd9c

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Microsoft

Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 16:00:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-17 21:23:15.087788 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0x39e4ca4acf1b74b555653287c299cae7b80b6c8853e95a59d7a905e25862a0fb

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Company A

Will Company A have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Venue reports inactive

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 23:59:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-13 15:24:22.298381 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0x1d99585c9b592ab07d7fae97b6c5453f50ef9ae83170570e29034dbfddfa25d5

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Company B

Will Company B have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Venue reports inactive

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 23:59:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-13 15:24:22.305703 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0x9f660a3bff57c7cb4746e536b090257fc3f73a490525ba23e62f79fb3577426d

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Company C

Will Company C have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Venue reports inactive

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 23:59:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-13 15:24:22.312712 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0xbed8c9ab13db08e8681788418373ccf8e4234686a6fbe19cf1450ba520fd7aeb

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Company D

Will Company D have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Venue reports inactive

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 23:59:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-13 15:24:22.31952 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0x4a9824e97938f0fe2f8157fbc56a82ee9f469f80c4da488d38f9f93b866ec967

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Company E

Will Company E have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Venue reports inactive

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 23:59:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-13 15:24:22.326425 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0x169f14a8d5a0cfa8b2c5425645abd0a274bb1935794d02648bbe5a6803047a9e

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Company F

Will Company F have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Venue reports inactive

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 23:59:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-13 15:24:22.333181 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0xdbdedd234b0f460663c345bc4453ba0d01287a57a864afc69da60a059d87266c

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Company G

Will Company G have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Venue reports inactive

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 23:59:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-13 15:24:22.34114 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0xacd7554129d37534add10651e905d99f528297e0541bd3dc24bf680f5d5ee9d6

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Company H

Will Company H have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Venue reports inactive

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 23:59:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-13 15:24:22.348055 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0x6f48b4864832a6211c18e558386a2c9e6042b00b26be11d46d1852ccb56a26cd

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Company I

Will Company I have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Venue reports inactive

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 23:59:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-13 15:24:22.355125 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0x6bfe55fdb72010690dd4a5caae868b9dece96a5e3d1a65c4874895336e85f877

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Company K

Will Company K have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Venue reports inactive

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 23:59:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-13 15:24:22.362463 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0xba179be913a6094df0106479d71b6f7f6dfb7646bf88e8dd2cc1c78a281615d4

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Other

Will any other company have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Venue reports inactive

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Retained observation toolsInspect exact contract
Venue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Declared resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
Scheduled end
2026-10-31 23:59:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-13 15:24:22.370052 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-17 21:47:10.391 UTC
Condition ID
0x6a7933a977dab9bf0554bbab9864ec1c0b8c9f71592a1909acd4d48a77f86b88

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.