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Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

Composition checked 2026-10-16 12:40:28.014 UTC · 4 contracts

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Outcome history

0 lines · 4 event outcomes · separate YES midpoints

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The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.

Venue scheduled ends · 1 date
  • 4 contracts

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4Contracts in the venue roster
2In HowSure’s current catalog
—Two-sided quotes in the retained snapshot
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2 of 4 contracts have a displayed price observation. 2 currently fresh.

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Each row is a separate contract with its own conditions. Following saves an event snapshot now and requests a daily refresh for My Brief. History begins with the first saved capture; these are daily observations, not continuous collection.

Prices are separate YES midpoints, not executable quotes or a normalized event distribution. They can come from different observation times. No price is inferred from another outcome.

Event outcomes

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Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate

Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?

Collected catalog midpoint · fresh · 2026-10-16 12:40:06.182 UTC

2.35%YES midpoint
Conditions & source details

Venue description

The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.

Declared resolution source
Not supplied for this contract
Scheduled end
2026-11-04 04:59:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-16 12:35:07.09146 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-16 12:40:28.014 UTC
Condition ID
0x699edd4556a15758bcddd34b896eb4d1cf8eaf712f0fdd984971cc08ee244ecf

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate

Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?

Collected catalog midpoint · fresh · 2026-10-16 12:40:06.182 UTC

2.95%YES midpoint
Conditions & source details

Venue description

The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.

Declared resolution source
Not supplied for this contract
Scheduled end
2026-11-04 04:59:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-16 12:35:07.09146 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-16 12:40:28.014 UTC
Condition ID
0x46a5ba0ba77dd6444d4b83990cec0e2ab2aef2c344de342c88f9d87ff82f297a

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate

Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Inspect exact contractVenue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.

Declared resolution source
Not supplied for this contract
Scheduled end
2026-11-04 04:59:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-16 12:35:07.09146 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-16 12:40:28.014 UTC
Condition ID
0xacc40b8c680180a2cb89ba2d8135edab6f3e4546ef102a9dffff86863d53cc01

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate

Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?

Not collected · Not supplied

—YES midpoint unavailable

No matching book observation was retained for this contract.

Inspect exact contractVenue contract Outcomes: Yes / No
Conditions & source details

Venue description

The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.

Declared resolution source
Not supplied for this contract
Scheduled end
2026-11-04 04:59:00 UTC
Venue metadata updated
2026-10-16 12:35:07.09146 UTC
Metadata fetched
2026-10-16 12:40:28.014 UTC
Condition ID
0xd88213e25cb330a0afe25f4f440bb71238d9aa66b4c66d816539d07516951c7c

Venue descriptions and declared sources are not independent verification or confirmation of settlement. Retained book details belong to the event capture; the displayed price may come from a newer catalog observation. Book receipt time is distinct from the provider timestamp.