{"schema_version":"howsure.evidence-request.v1","status":"collected","captured_at":"2026-10-16T12:26:54.743Z","market_id":"polymarket:condition-sha256:c2dbecc28cab7954bb5cb3cd0c528e0c704b1b1c612ac39761adb8be22cacadc","market_slug":"will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-1pt0-and-1pt5","identity":{"schemaVersion":1,"marketId":"polymarket:condition-sha256:c2dbecc28cab7954bb5cb3cd0c528e0c704b1b1c612ac39761adb8be22cacadc","venueUrl":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-1pt0-and-1pt5","capturedAt":"2026-10-16T12:26:53.002Z","sourceUrl":"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/slug/will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-1pt0-and-1pt5","responseSha256":"eb2d13662e91c07c98118bc0a48df3c9d8025fa6c40e6ce629a128531619798d","identityRecordSha256":"0c4197e0518b7bf3412bb244b7260802633e218c6f6b683623b8a9f9021063ed","identityRecord":{"conditionId":"0xb4b2a29f631589d2ffaa318c3a0ad4e10685601c788a72dbd27b4b893a15f35e","id":"654424","slug":"will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-1pt0-and-1pt5","question":"Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?"}},"contract":{"id":"polymarket:condition-sha256:c2dbecc28cab7954bb5cb3cd0c528e0c704b1b1c612ac39761adb8be22cacadc","slug":"polymarket-c2dbecc28cab7954bb5cb3cd0c528e0c704b1b1c612ac39761adb8be22cacadc","question":"Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?","venue":"polymarket","description":"This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP \"Advance Estimate\" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 29, 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\n\nNote: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an \"Advance Estimate\". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.","resolutionRules":null,"resolutionSource":null,"closesAt":"2026-01-29T00:00:00Z"},"sources":[{"id":"venue-contract","title":"Captured contract conditions","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-1pt0-and-1pt5","publisher":"Polymarket","checked_at":"2026-10-16T12:26:53.002Z","excerpt":"This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP \"Advance Estimate\" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 29, 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\n\nNote: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an \"Advance Estimate\". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.","locator":"description field in exact market metadata","status":"collected","reason":null},{"id":"bea-gdp-current","title":"BEA GDP current release overview","url":"https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis","checked_at":"2026-10-16T12:26:53.696Z","excerpt":"Gross Domestic Product · GDP (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 2nd Quarter 2026; State PCE, 2025 · Q2 2026 (3rd) +2.2% Q1 2026 +2.5% Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the second quarter of 2026 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.5 percent (revised). The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the second quarter were consumer spending, investment, and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. At the state level, real GDP ranged from a 4.0 percent increase in New York to a 2.3 percent decrease in West Virginia. Current Release Current release: September 30, 2026 Next release: October 29, 2026 · Listed publication links (destinations not fetched): [\"https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-third-estimate-industries-corporate-profits-state-gdp-and-state-personal-income-2nd\"]","locator":"Gross Domestic Product · complete current release title and overview, including release dates · listed current-release link · bea-gdp-current-overview-v2","status":"collected","reason":null},{"id":"bea-gdp-release-index","url":"https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule/full","title":"BEA Q4 2025 Advance Estimate release index","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis","checked_at":"2026-10-16T12:26:53.941Z","status":"collected","excerpt":"BEA full release schedule · Year 2026\nGDP (Advance Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2025\nScheduled date: February 20, 2026\nListed time: 8:30 AM (timezone not supplied)\nListed release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-4th-quarter-and-year-2025\nRevision title: GDP (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 4th Quarter and Year 2025\nRevision scheduled date: April 9, 2026\nRevision listed time: 8:30 AM (timezone not supplied)\nRevision listed release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-third-estimate-industries-corporate-profits-state-gdp-and-state-personal-income-4th","locator":"BEA full schedule · complete Q4 2025 Advance and available Third Estimate rows · gdp-release-index-v2","reason":null},{"id":"bea-gdp-advance-release","url":"https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-4th-quarter-and-year-2025","title":"BEA Q4 2025 Advance Estimate","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis","checked_at":"2026-10-16T12:26:54.658Z","status":"collected","excerpt":"GDP (Advance Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2025\nRelease: EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 a.m. EST, Friday, February 20, 2026\nOpening paragraph: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December), according to the advance estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.4 percent.\nTable units: Real GDP and Related Measures [Percent change (SAAR) from 2025 Q3 to Q4]\nAdvance Estimate · Real GDP: 1.4\nReschedule notice: The advance report for the fourth quarter of 2025, originally scheduled for January 29, 2026, was rescheduled due to the October–November 2025 government shutdown.","locator":"BEA rescheduled Advance Estimate · title, release time, complete opening real-GDP paragraph, matching SAAR table and postponement notice · gdp-advance-rescheduled-v2","reason":null},{"id":"bea-gdp-revision-release","url":"https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-third-estimate-industries-corporate-profits-state-gdp-and-state-personal-income-4th","title":"BEA Q4 2025 Third Estimate","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis","checked_at":"2026-10-16T12:26:54.709Z","status":"collected","excerpt":"GDP (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 4th Quarter and Year 2025\nRelease: EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 a.m. EDT, Thursday, April 9, 2026\nOpening paragraph: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 4.4 percent.\nTable units: Real GDP and Related Measures [Percent change (SAAR) from 2025:Q3 to 2025:Q4]\nReal GDP · Advance Estimate: 1.4 · Second Estimate: 0.7 · Third Estimate: 0.5","locator":"BEA historical Third Estimate · title, release time, complete opening real-GDP paragraph and full vintage-labelled real-GDP table row · gdp-historical-revision-v1","reason":null},{"id":"polymarket-gdp-event-brackets","title":"Captured GDP event brackets","publisher":"Polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025","checked_at":"2026-10-16T12:26:53.363Z","excerpt":"{\"schemaVersion\":1,\"eventId\":\"67292\",\"eventSlug\":\"us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025\",\"eventUrl\":\"https://polymarket.com/event/us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025\",\"apiUrl\":\"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/slug/us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025\",\"responseSha256\":\"b99c421ee7231fa443aede72d5bd4d9fa7e648ea366c2f8fbac719546951b00d\",\"selected\":{\"nativeMarketId\":\"654424\",\"conditionId\":\"0xb4b2a29f631589d2ffaa318c3a0ad4e10685601c788a72dbd27b4b893a15f35e\",\"nativeSlug\":\"will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-1pt0-and-1pt5\",\"question\":\"Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?\",\"metadataResponseSha256\":\"eb2d13662e91c07c98118bc0a48df3c9d8025fa6c40e6ce629a128531619798d\"},\"contracts\":[{\"nativeMarketId\":\"654423\",\"conditionId\":\"0x5726b84c330e995ea638bbfb4b7a4b580d7334bdc708697eaf0d94c8eb3d8fb3\",\"nativeSlug\":\"will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-less-than-1pt0\",\"question\":\"Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be less than 1.0%?\",\"description\":\"This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP \\\"Advance Estimate\\\" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 29, 2026.\\n\\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\\n\\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\\n\\nNote: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an \\\"Advance Estimate\\\". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.\",\"resolutionRules\":null,\"resolutionSource\":null,\"closed\":true},{\"nativeMarketId\":\"654424\",\"conditionId\":\"0xb4b2a29f631589d2ffaa318c3a0ad4e10685601c788a72dbd27b4b893a15f35e\",\"nativeSlug\":\"will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-1pt0-and-1pt5\",\"question\":\"Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?\",\"description\":\"This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP \\\"Advance Estimate\\\" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 29, 2026.\\n\\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\\n\\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\\n\\nNote: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an \\\"Advance Estimate\\\". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.\",\"resolutionRules\":null,\"resolutionSource\":null,\"closed\":true},{\"nativeMarketId\":\"654425\",\"conditionId\":\"0x54ee81d959b52711cbef37fb26ed617c1aed90d8043a10f8800dcec6839ca846\",\"nativeSlug\":\"will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-1pt5-and-2pt0\",\"question\":\"Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?\",\"description\":\"This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP \\\"Advance Estimate\\\" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 29, 2026.\\n\\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\\n\\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\\n\\nNote: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an \\\"Advance Estimate\\\". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.\",\"resolutionRules\":null,\"resolutionSource\":null,\"closed\":true},{\"nativeMarketId\":\"654426\",\"conditionId\":\"0xe50896651decb1916a4182ed827434daf9935faf8cf9cf03415f5b8a6cdf40a5\",\"nativeSlug\":\"will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-2pt0-and-2pt5\",\"question\":\"Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?\",\"description\":\"This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP \\\"Advance Estimate\\\" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 29, 2026.\\n\\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\\n\\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\\n\\nNote: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an \\\"Advance Estimate\\\". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.\",\"resolutionRules\":null,\"resolutionSource\":null,\"closed\":true},{\"nativeMarketId\":\"654427\",\"conditionId\":\"0x7c23eb43f7aeca2ed64186ea1b8269d61ab53c564911b91b2808b51d85d5db8b\",\"nativeSlug\":\"will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-2pt5-and-3pt0\",\"question\":\"Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?\",\"description\":\"This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP \\\"Advance Estimate\\\" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 29, 2026.\\n\\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\\n\\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\\n\\nNote: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an \\\"Advance Estimate\\\". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.\",\"resolutionRules\":null,\"resolutionSource\":null,\"closed\":true},{\"nativeMarketId\":\"654428\",\"conditionId\":\"0xf36f70ba24c9b0e0b8d3816cfeb8b8343f2cd57c38eaffda6fcaa897ac2144c9\",\"nativeSlug\":\"will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-3pt0-and-3pt5\",\"question\":\"Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?\",\"description\":\"This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP \\\"Advance Estimate\\\" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 29, 2026.\\n\\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\\n\\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\\n\\nNote: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an \\\"Advance Estimate\\\". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.\",\"resolutionRules\":null,\"resolutionSource\":null,\"closed\":true},{\"nativeMarketId\":\"654429\",\"conditionId\":\"0xa0c6605b583595e3f1d722bd3c5be9fd33a9d31f39f8aeba1fca718e0e70bf8b\",\"nativeSlug\":\"will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-greater-than-3pt5\",\"question\":\"Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?\",\"description\":\"This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP \\\"Advance Estimate\\\" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 29, 2026.\\n\\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\\n\\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\\n\\nNote: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an \\\"Advance Estimate\\\". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.\",\"resolutionRules\":null,\"resolutionSource\":null,\"closed\":true}],\"marketCount\":7}","locator":"Complete markets array from exact event metadata; closed contracts retained","status":"collected","reason":null}],"gaps":[],"limitations":["Collected source passages are evidence for a new draft, not a verified Check, forecast or independently established fact.","The supported source policies are the exact Federal Reserve FOMC calendar and BEA GDP URLs, plus the fixed BEA PCE overview for complete recognized Core PCE monthly terms and the opt-in BLS release policy for complete Core CPI monthly terms, explicitly named in captured contract text or its resolution source. A title or topic match never selects a source. Ambiguous source selection does not start a source read.","This explicit GDP request permits a bounded read of the official release index and its exact quarter/year Advance Estimate link within the existing six-second source budget. For the recognized Q4 2025 historical policy it also retains the separately indexed Third Estimate within that budget. An explicit official postponement notice must reconcile the unchanged venue date with the listed and printed Advance publication date. A later revision never replaces that initial estimate. A missing release does not establish a delayed-release fallback or venue settlement.","The explicit bracket option adds one exact-event metadata read within that same budget. Every event member, including closed contracts, is retained; no extra book is requested. The roster is observed now and is not authenticated historical membership. Only complete matching terms and unambiguous boundaries are applied.","This one-time request does not follow a market, start monitoring, publish a Check, save an account document or call a paid model. Price and final settlement are outside this evidence package.","Successful identical requests may reuse the same retained result for up to 30 seconds. Read the capture times; a request does not guarantee a new upstream read."],"evidence_bundle":{"market":{"id":"polymarket:condition-sha256:c2dbecc28cab7954bb5cb3cd0c528e0c704b1b1c612ac39761adb8be22cacadc","slug":"polymarket-c2dbecc28cab7954bb5cb3cd0c528e0c704b1b1c612ac39761adb8be22cacadc","question":"Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?","venue":"polymarket","description":"This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP \"Advance Estimate\" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 29, 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\n\nNote: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an \"Advance Estimate\". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.","resolutionRules":null,"resolutionSource":null,"closesAt":"2026-01-29T00:00:00Z"},"identityEvidence":[{"schemaVersion":1,"marketId":"polymarket:condition-sha256:c2dbecc28cab7954bb5cb3cd0c528e0c704b1b1c612ac39761adb8be22cacadc","venueUrl":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-1pt0-and-1pt5","capturedAt":"2026-10-16T12:26:53.002Z","sourceUrl":"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/slug/will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-1pt0-and-1pt5","responseSha256":"eb2d13662e91c07c98118bc0a48df3c9d8025fa6c40e6ce629a128531619798d","identityRecordSha256":"0c4197e0518b7bf3412bb244b7260802633e218c6f6b683623b8a9f9021063ed","identityRecord":{"conditionId":"0xb4b2a29f631589d2ffaa318c3a0ad4e10685601c788a72dbd27b4b893a15f35e","id":"654424","slug":"will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-1pt0-and-1pt5","question":"Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?"}}],"sources":[{"id":"venue-contract","title":"Captured contract conditions","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-1pt0-and-1pt5","publisher":"Polymarket","accessedAt":"2026-10-16T12:26:53.002Z","excerpt":"This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP \"Advance Estimate\" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 29, 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\n\nNote: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an \"Advance Estimate\". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.","locator":"description field in exact market metadata","role":"venue","publishedAt":null,"contentHash":"6bfa6f59ad9e13ecd8b7e5a13d95aa3a456af340da3c822810b13072bf5188b6"},{"id":"bea-gdp-current","title":"BEA GDP current release overview","url":"https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis","accessedAt":"2026-10-16T12:26:53.696Z","excerpt":"Gross Domestic Product · GDP (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 2nd Quarter 2026; State PCE, 2025 · Q2 2026 (3rd) +2.2% Q1 2026 +2.5% Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the second quarter of 2026 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.5 percent (revised). The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the second quarter were consumer spending, investment, and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. At the state level, real GDP ranged from a 4.0 percent increase in New York to a 2.3 percent decrease in West Virginia. Current Release Current release: September 30, 2026 Next release: October 29, 2026 · Listed publication links (destinations not fetched): [\"https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-third-estimate-industries-corporate-profits-state-gdp-and-state-personal-income-2nd\"]","locator":"Gross Domestic Product · complete current release title and overview, including release dates · listed current-release link · bea-gdp-current-overview-v2","role":"primary","publishedAt":null,"contentHash":"ec309d3e979afed377f277b13dea33d4f519e01b9509d0f8821925905aed25b4"},{"id":"bea-gdp-release-index","title":"BEA Q4 2025 Advance Estimate release index","url":"https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule/full","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis","accessedAt":"2026-10-16T12:26:53.941Z","excerpt":"BEA full release schedule · Year 2026\nGDP (Advance Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2025\nScheduled date: February 20, 2026\nListed time: 8:30 AM (timezone not supplied)\nListed release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-4th-quarter-and-year-2025\nRevision title: GDP (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 4th Quarter and Year 2025\nRevision scheduled date: April 9, 2026\nRevision listed time: 8:30 AM (timezone not supplied)\nRevision listed release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-third-estimate-industries-corporate-profits-state-gdp-and-state-personal-income-4th","locator":"BEA full schedule · complete Q4 2025 Advance and available Third Estimate rows · gdp-release-index-v2","role":"primary","publishedAt":null,"contentHash":"4129857a42adbf634e2da23bb4b0d4d5e6ac1ed3562229354e38ef6fbfce2018"},{"id":"bea-gdp-advance-release","title":"BEA Q4 2025 Advance Estimate","url":"https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-4th-quarter-and-year-2025","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis","accessedAt":"2026-10-16T12:26:54.658Z","excerpt":"GDP (Advance Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2025\nRelease: EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 a.m. EST, Friday, February 20, 2026\nOpening paragraph: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December), according to the advance estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.4 percent.\nTable units: Real GDP and Related Measures [Percent change (SAAR) from 2025 Q3 to Q4]\nAdvance Estimate · Real GDP: 1.4\nReschedule notice: The advance report for the fourth quarter of 2025, originally scheduled for January 29, 2026, was rescheduled due to the October–November 2025 government shutdown.","locator":"BEA rescheduled Advance Estimate · title, release time, complete opening real-GDP paragraph, matching SAAR table and postponement notice · gdp-advance-rescheduled-v2","role":"primary","publishedAt":null,"contentHash":"3175fa7cc78a3c147743ef6b7b298a20bda448e91d18f36fe8101ce2827daa6c"},{"id":"bea-gdp-revision-release","title":"BEA Q4 2025 Third Estimate","url":"https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-third-estimate-industries-corporate-profits-state-gdp-and-state-personal-income-4th","publisher":"U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis","accessedAt":"2026-10-16T12:26:54.709Z","excerpt":"GDP (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 4th Quarter and Year 2025\nRelease: EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 a.m. EDT, Thursday, April 9, 2026\nOpening paragraph: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter of 2025, real GDP increased 4.4 percent.\nTable units: Real GDP and Related Measures [Percent change (SAAR) from 2025:Q3 to 2025:Q4]\nReal GDP · Advance Estimate: 1.4 · Second Estimate: 0.7 · Third Estimate: 0.5","locator":"BEA historical Third Estimate · title, release time, complete opening real-GDP paragraph and full vintage-labelled real-GDP table row · gdp-historical-revision-v1","role":"primary","publishedAt":null,"contentHash":"3483c5363d987f0bba4a71c64397495e8d5f204a23a10707029178309889cfa6"},{"id":"polymarket-gdp-event-brackets","title":"Captured GDP event brackets","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025","publisher":"Polymarket","accessedAt":"2026-10-16T12:26:53.363Z","excerpt":"{\"schemaVersion\":1,\"eventId\":\"67292\",\"eventSlug\":\"us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025\",\"eventUrl\":\"https://polymarket.com/event/us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025\",\"apiUrl\":\"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/slug/us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025\",\"responseSha256\":\"b99c421ee7231fa443aede72d5bd4d9fa7e648ea366c2f8fbac719546951b00d\",\"selected\":{\"nativeMarketId\":\"654424\",\"conditionId\":\"0xb4b2a29f631589d2ffaa318c3a0ad4e10685601c788a72dbd27b4b893a15f35e\",\"nativeSlug\":\"will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-1pt0-and-1pt5\",\"question\":\"Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?\",\"metadataResponseSha256\":\"eb2d13662e91c07c98118bc0a48df3c9d8025fa6c40e6ce629a128531619798d\"},\"contracts\":[{\"nativeMarketId\":\"654423\",\"conditionId\":\"0x5726b84c330e995ea638bbfb4b7a4b580d7334bdc708697eaf0d94c8eb3d8fb3\",\"nativeSlug\":\"will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-less-than-1pt0\",\"question\":\"Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be less than 1.0%?\",\"description\":\"This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP \\\"Advance Estimate\\\" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 29, 2026.\\n\\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\\n\\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\\n\\nNote: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an \\\"Advance Estimate\\\". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.\",\"resolutionRules\":null,\"resolutionSource\":null,\"closed\":true},{\"nativeMarketId\":\"654424\",\"conditionId\":\"0xb4b2a29f631589d2ffaa318c3a0ad4e10685601c788a72dbd27b4b893a15f35e\",\"nativeSlug\":\"will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-1pt0-and-1pt5\",\"question\":\"Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?\",\"description\":\"This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP \\\"Advance Estimate\\\" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 29, 2026.\\n\\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\\n\\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\\n\\nNote: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an \\\"Advance Estimate\\\". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.\",\"resolutionRules\":null,\"resolutionSource\":null,\"closed\":true},{\"nativeMarketId\":\"654425\",\"conditionId\":\"0x54ee81d959b52711cbef37fb26ed617c1aed90d8043a10f8800dcec6839ca846\",\"nativeSlug\":\"will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-1pt5-and-2pt0\",\"question\":\"Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?\",\"description\":\"This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP \\\"Advance Estimate\\\" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 29, 2026.\\n\\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\\n\\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\\n\\nNote: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an \\\"Advance Estimate\\\". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.\",\"resolutionRules\":null,\"resolutionSource\":null,\"closed\":true},{\"nativeMarketId\":\"654426\",\"conditionId\":\"0xe50896651decb1916a4182ed827434daf9935faf8cf9cf03415f5b8a6cdf40a5\",\"nativeSlug\":\"will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-2pt0-and-2pt5\",\"question\":\"Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?\",\"description\":\"This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP \\\"Advance Estimate\\\" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 29, 2026.\\n\\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\\n\\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\\n\\nNote: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an \\\"Advance Estimate\\\". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.\",\"resolutionRules\":null,\"resolutionSource\":null,\"closed\":true},{\"nativeMarketId\":\"654427\",\"conditionId\":\"0x7c23eb43f7aeca2ed64186ea1b8269d61ab53c564911b91b2808b51d85d5db8b\",\"nativeSlug\":\"will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-2pt5-and-3pt0\",\"question\":\"Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?\",\"description\":\"This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP \\\"Advance Estimate\\\" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 29, 2026.\\n\\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\\n\\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\\n\\nNote: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an \\\"Advance Estimate\\\". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.\",\"resolutionRules\":null,\"resolutionSource\":null,\"closed\":true},{\"nativeMarketId\":\"654428\",\"conditionId\":\"0xf36f70ba24c9b0e0b8d3816cfeb8b8343f2cd57c38eaffda6fcaa897ac2144c9\",\"nativeSlug\":\"will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-3pt0-and-3pt5\",\"question\":\"Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?\",\"description\":\"This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP \\\"Advance Estimate\\\" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 29, 2026.\\n\\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\\n\\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\\n\\nNote: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an \\\"Advance Estimate\\\". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.\",\"resolutionRules\":null,\"resolutionSource\":null,\"closed\":true},{\"nativeMarketId\":\"654429\",\"conditionId\":\"0xa0c6605b583595e3f1d722bd3c5be9fd33a9d31f39f8aeba1fca718e0e70bf8b\",\"nativeSlug\":\"will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-greater-than-3pt5\",\"question\":\"Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?\",\"description\":\"This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP \\\"Advance Estimate\\\" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 29, 2026.\\n\\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\\n\\nThe GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product\\n\\nNote: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an \\\"Advance Estimate\\\". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.\",\"resolutionRules\":null,\"resolutionSource\":null,\"closed\":true}],\"marketCount\":7}","locator":"Complete markets array from exact event metadata; closed contracts retained","role":"venue","publishedAt":null,"contentHash":"99b19b7070c5d34aec19f158c821a22a931165a5d24bbc90043b90e6cca5e910"}]},"meaning_verified":false,"check_published":false,"collection_scope":"gdp_release_brackets","contract_reading":{"method":"deterministic_contract_rules","family":"us-gdp-growth","summary":"The Q4 2025 BEA Advance Estimate reports 1.4% seasonally adjusted annualized real GDP growth, released 2026-02-20T13:30:00.000Z. The venue scheduled 2026-01-29; BEA explicitly records that original date as rescheduled. The printed release date agrees with the retained official schedule. The retained 7-contract event roster assigns 1.4% to “Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?”. That is the selected contract’s YES bracket. This does not establish venue settlement. The separately retained third estimate is 0.5% (2026-04-09); it does not replace the Advance Estimate. Venue settlement remains unestablished.","conditions":[{"label":"Metric and period","value":"Use seasonally adjusted annualized real GDP growth for Q4 2025. Do not substitute nominal GDP, an unannualized change, another quarter or a later revision.","sourceIds":["venue-contract"]},{"label":"YES condition","sourceIds":["venue-contract","bea-gdp-advance-release","polymarket-gdp-event-brackets"],"value":"Selected contract: “Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?”. The retained 1.4% Advance Estimate belongs to this selected bracket under the complete event roster and captured shared-boundary rule."},{"label":"NO condition","sourceIds":["venue-contract","bea-gdp-advance-release","polymarket-gdp-event-brackets"],"value":"The retained 7-contract event roster assigns 1.4% to “Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?”. That is the selected contract’s YES bracket. This does not establish venue settlement. The classification is a contract-condition reading, not a statement that the venue has settled YES or NO."},{"label":"Estimate vintage","value":"Use the BEA Advance Estimate in the ordinary case. Revisions made after that release do not replace its observation for this contract.","sourceIds":["venue-contract"]},{"label":"Shared boundary","value":"If a reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the venue assigns the higher range bracket. No extra rounding rule or independently verified numeric interval is inferred without the full bracket roster.","sourceIds":["venue-contract"]},{"label":"Scheduled release","value":"The venue schedules the Q4 2025 advance estimate for January 29, 2026. These terms do not state an exact release time or timezone; the catalogue end timestamp does not establish publication.","sourceIds":["venue-contract"]},{"label":"Delayed or missing publication","value":"The complete captured terms contain no delayed-release or previous-figure fallback. Do not substitute a second or third estimate, another quarter, or zero when the Advance Estimate is absent. Reconcile an official publication delay separately.","sourceIds":["venue-contract"]},{"label":"Event bracket interpretation","value":"The retained 7-contract event roster assigns 1.4% to “Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?”. That is the selected contract’s YES bracket. This does not establish venue settlement.","sourceIds":["polymarket-gdp-event-brackets"]},{"label":"Observed Advance Estimate","value":"The Q4 2025 BEA Advance Estimate reports 1.4% seasonally adjusted annualized real GDP growth, released 2026-02-20T13:30:00.000Z. The venue scheduled 2026-01-29; BEA explicitly records that original date as rescheduled. The printed release date agrees with the retained official schedule. The retained 7-contract event roster assigns 1.4% to “Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?”. That is the selected contract’s YES bracket. This does not establish venue settlement. The separately retained third estimate is 0.5% (2026-04-09); it does not replace the Advance Estimate. Venue settlement remains unestablished.","sourceIds":["venue-contract","bea-gdp-release-index","bea-gdp-revision-release","bea-gdp-advance-release","polymarket-gdp-event-brackets"]},{"label":"Release evidence limits","value":"This is a deterministic reading of retained BEA passages, not a forecast, verified Check or final venue settlement. The release time and retrieval time are separate; a later retrieval does not establish when HowSure first could have observed the release. When an Advance-labelled publication page is retained, it is a later reading, not an independently archived copy captured at its original release. It does not prove that the page has never been corrected or edited. Later revisions remain separate and never replace the qualifying Advance Estimate. No delayed-release or previous-figure fallback is inferred from missing evidence. Exact bracket boundaries remain unknown without the adjacent bracket roster. No rounding beyond the captured contract rule is applied. The separately retained historical third estimate is context; it is not a claim to be the latest GDP estimate available today.","sourceIds":["venue-contract","bea-gdp-release-index","bea-gdp-revision-release","bea-gdp-advance-release","polymarket-gdp-event-brackets"]}],"calendar":{"status":"matched","sourceIds":["bea-gdp-release-index","bea-gdp-advance-release"],"text":"The venue scheduled 2026-01-29. BEA explicitly states that this exact-quarter Advance report was rescheduled from that date; its printed release time is 2026-02-20T13:30:00.000Z. The official schedule lists 2026-02-20. The venue terms and saved date are unchanged; this reconciliation does not establish venue settlement."},"unknowns":["These captured terms specify no alternative estimate or previous-figure fallback for a delayed or missing Advance Estimate.","A scheduled publication is not a forecast, evidence that the publication occurred, or a final venue settlement."],"nextSteps":["Check venue resolution separately; the retained advance figure is not venue settlement.","Keep any later GDP revisions separate from this contract’s qualifying advance figure."],"release":{"status":"observed","required":{"quarter":4,"year":2025,"expectedAdvanceDate":"2026-01-29","vintage":"advance"},"observation":{"valuePercent":1.4,"quarter":4,"year":2025,"vintage":"advance","publishedAt":"2026-02-20T13:30:00.000Z","sourceId":"bea-gdp-advance-release","url":"https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-4th-quarter-and-year-2025","checkedAt":"2026-10-16T12:26:54.658Z","rescheduledFrom":"2026-01-29"},"latestRevision":{"valuePercent":0.5,"quarter":4,"year":2025,"vintage":"third","publishedDate":"2026-04-09","sourceId":"bea-gdp-revision-release","url":"https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-third-estimate-industries-corporate-profits-state-gdp-and-state-personal-income-4th","checkedAt":"2026-10-16T12:26:54.709Z"},"conditionAssessment":"YES_condition_met","summary":"The Q4 2025 BEA Advance Estimate reports 1.4% seasonally adjusted annualized real GDP growth, released 2026-02-20T13:30:00.000Z. The venue scheduled 2026-01-29; BEA explicitly records that original date as rescheduled. The printed release date agrees with the retained official schedule. The retained 7-contract event roster assigns 1.4% to “Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?”. That is the selected contract’s YES bracket. This does not establish venue settlement. The separately retained third estimate is 0.5% (2026-04-09); it does not replace the Advance Estimate. Venue settlement remains unestablished.","sourceIds":["venue-contract","bea-gdp-release-index","bea-gdp-revision-release","bea-gdp-advance-release","polymarket-gdp-event-brackets"],"limitations":["This is a deterministic reading of retained BEA passages, not a forecast, verified Check or final venue settlement.","The release time and retrieval time are separate; a later retrieval does not establish when HowSure first could have observed the release.","When an Advance-labelled publication page is retained, it is a later reading, not an independently archived copy captured at its original release. It does not prove that the page has never been corrected or edited.","Later revisions remain separate and never replace the qualifying Advance Estimate. No delayed-release or previous-figure fallback is inferred from missing evidence.","Exact bracket boundaries remain unknown without the adjacent bracket roster. No rounding beyond the captured contract rule is applied.","The separately retained historical third estimate is context; it is not a claim to be the latest GDP estimate available today."],"settlementEstablished":false,"brackets":{"status":"assigned","reason":null,"valuePercent":1.4,"atBoundary":false,"selected":{"nativeMarketId":"654424","conditionId":"0xb4b2a29f631589d2ffaa318c3a0ad4e10685601c788a72dbd27b4b893a15f35e","nativeSlug":"will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-1pt0-and-1pt5","question":"Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-1pt0-and-1pt5"},"assignedContract":{"nativeMarketId":"654424","conditionId":"0xb4b2a29f631589d2ffaa318c3a0ad4e10685601c788a72dbd27b4b893a15f35e","nativeSlug":"will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-1pt0-and-1pt5","question":"Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-be-between-1pt0-and-1pt5"},"event":{"eventId":"67292","eventSlug":"us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025","eventUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025","apiUrl":"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/slug/us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025","responseSha256":"b99c421ee7231fa443aede72d5bd4d9fa7e648ea366c2f8fbac719546951b00d","checkedAt":"2026-10-16T12:26:53.363Z","marketCount":7},"conditionAssessment":"YES_condition_met","summary":"The retained 7-contract event roster assigns 1.4% to “Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?”. That is the selected contract’s YES bracket. This does not establish venue settlement.","sourceIds":["polymarket-gdp-event-brackets"],"limitations":["This is a deterministic interpretation of the complete retained event roster and selected contract rules. It does not establish venue settlement or a trading recommendation.","Closed contracts are retained. Event retrieval and market metadata times describe observations, not the original listing or a proof that the roster never changed.","The retained response hashes are provenance references, not independently authenticated records or reverified raw response bytes.","An internal shared boundary goes to the higher bounded range. At the strict upper tail, the title and shared-boundary rule conflict; assignment remains unknown."]}}}}