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Polymarket · on-demand contract read
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Contract tools
This reads one exact contract on demand. It does not add it to continuous collection, start a price history or create an independently verified Check. Reads may be reused for up to 30 seconds; the recorded times stay unchanged.
YES order book
Observed midpoint
Book identity & receipt
- Best YES bid / ask
- 0.4% / 0.6%
- Provider timestamp (raw)
- 1792128482345
- YES token
72535544017897924722695722172278828562733090748474862987195303914909938482758- Book digest
ddf490632cfc541ddb33c2428d2935524c771de5f9cb199d6a0fd6fb5ed6b016
Midpoint is calculated only from a valid two-sided YES book. It is not an executable quote, a forecast, or evidence of settlement.
Two Fed cuts in 2026: units and the year-end window
This contract counts 25 bp cut units: a single 50 bp reduction counts as two. Its emergency-action window continues through December 31, beyond the scheduled December meeting. The final annual count is not established by this review.
Limited to the reviewed claims. Event outcome, settlement and cause of a price move are not established.
Reviewed
Open this check versionOne-time source collection
Inspect the evidence behind the contract
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Recognized complete terms receive a rule-based reading, including supported Fed, GDP, Core PCE/Core CPI monthly and Bitcoin threshold contracts. Election pair readings are available in Compare. Standard collection reads the named Federal Reserve calendar, BEA GDP overview or the fixed PCE overview for recognized Core PCE terms. The PCE overview is context; the exact monthly figure still needs its release. The optional scope adds the exact official Fed decision, GDP release or selected PCE/CPI monthly release when available. Core CPI collection retains terms only until you explicitly request BLS release evidence. A candle query plan does not fetch candles. Other contracts retain their venue text and explain what is missing.
Price for your size
Read YES and NO depth, then estimate buying or selling a number of shares.
Venue-provided conditions
What defines this contract
Description & declared source
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
- Separate resolution rules
- No usable separate rules supplied
- Declared resolution source
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
- Scheduled end
- 2027-01-01 04:59:00 UTC
- Outcomes
- Yes / No
- Venue metadata updated
- 2026-10-16 05:23:08.698231 UTC
The text and source come from the venue. A separate reviewed Check applies only to its explicitly retained claims and context. Scheduled end, closed and inactive flags do not establish final settlement.
Retained conditions history, when available, comes from accepted HowSure catalog observations. This on-demand read is not added to that history.
Conditions history
Versions observed in accepted catalog snapshots. These times do not establish when the venue changed its rules. Earlier history and changes between observations are unknown.
Exact contract & metadata receipt
- Canonical market ID
polymarket:condition-sha256:dd384e3a0cbe82fa2808d7497a2d08a1218c06c1ea989b3f0d4bb714042577ed- Condition ID
0xe0d9f508a249e0070db06eb7d1e1fb17eb23c963f6fb722c4c3f81e23240c1cd- Metadata read at
- 2026-10-16 05:28:36.019 UTC
- Metadata digest
83c2eea571d20e72a19d11d3f102a01a53af3effb556dbef3265bd6c7011efba
The digest identifies returned content, not its accuracy. Export this read to retain it; opening this route later may return a newer observation.