Skip to content
howsure
Developers
My work

HowSure / Public market check / Fixed version

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Open current market analysis ↗
Source review · claim by claim

Two Fed cuts in 2026: units and the year-end window

This contract counts 25 bp cut units: a single 50 bp reduction counts as two. Its emergency-action window continues through December 31, beyond the scheduled December meeting. The final annual count is not established by this review.

Reviewed · fixed review version

This review supports only the claims below. It is not a forecast, confirmation of final settlement, or explanation of a price move.

What the sources establish

  1. Supported claimContract terms

    The venue counts cuts in 25 bp units: a 50 bp decision counts as two; emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings also count through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

    The current native contract description explicitly gives the 50 bp example and year-end emergency-action window. It also counts cuts of 1–24 bp as one and permits early No if cuts already exceed the specified count.

    Source 1: Polymarket
  2. Supported claimExternal source

    The captured Federal Reserve calendar lists October 27–28 and December 8–9 as the final two scheduled FOMC meetings of 2026.

    These are schedule entries in the 2026 section. They provide dated statement checkpoints; they do not establish policy decisions or exhaust the contract’s emergency-action window.

    Source 2: Federal Reserve
  3. Supported claimExternal source

    The captured official 2026 rate-change table contains one row: September 17, a 25 bp increase, a 0 bp decrease, and a 3.75–4.00% target range.

    This is a reading of the complete 2026 table visible in the saved response. That row is an increase, so it is not a qualifying cut. The table snapshot alone is not an independently reconciled ledger of every 2026 statement or emergency action.

    Source 3: Federal Reserve
  4. Open questionExternal source

    Exactly two qualifying cut units will occur in 2026.

    The remaining scheduled decisions and any qualifying emergency actions through the stated deadline are not established here. No YES/NO settlement, probability estimate or price-move explanation follows from this bounded source review.

    Source 1: PolymarketSource 2: Federal ReserveSource 3: Federal Reserve

Read the contract this way

YES condition
Exactly two cut units under the venue’s rules during 2026. A 50 bp reduction counts as two units; the count is not simply the number of meetings that cut.Source 1
NO condition
A different final annual count; the venue allows early No if the count has already exceeded two. Cuts of 1–24 bp are treated as one unit.Source 1
Evidence window
Scheduled FOMC statements and qualifying emergency cuts through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Completion of the December 8–9 scheduled meeting alone does not complete this window.Source 1Source 2
Official table reading
Use the Decrease column for the retained September 17 row: it is 0 bp. The 25 bp figure belongs to Increase. Changes are in basis points; the level is in percent.Source 3

Inspect the evidence

Open a source to inspect its retained excerpt and capture time. Linked pages may change after the review.

01Polymarket annual Fed cut-count contractPolymarket · Venue contractAccessed
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Gamma GET /markets?slug=will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026; sole returned row, id 616904; description field, complete. Condition-ID hash verified against the HowSure market ID.

Read original source
Published
Not supplied
Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprintd5fd02af7e03939d29bb8d9398514a5a29b1d4cba8aca47a3de5bdbba586e765

SHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.

02FOMC 2026 meeting calendarFederal Reserve · Primary sourceAccessed
2026 FOMC Meetings […] October 27-28 December 8-9*

Heading “2026 FOMC Meetings” (#42828), October and December entries; earlier 2026 entries omitted as marked. Asterisk denotes a meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections.

Read original source
Published
Page last update: October 07, 2026; time and time zone not supplied
Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprintdf60eb6804ed2ffaafa25e42cdbce5a076b01589d0342fe77920a1f215fcb8b2

SHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.

03FOMC target federal funds rate changes: 2026 tableFederal Reserve · Primary sourceAccessed
2026 Date | Increase | Decrease | Level (%) September 17 | 25 | 0 | 3.75-4.00

Heading “FOMC’s target federal funds rate or range, change (basis points) and level”; #2026 table, complete header and sole body row. Columns rendered with | separators.

Read original source
Published
Page last update: September 16, 2026; time and time zone not supplied
Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprintf0bb975a48affe765fe8c600a7e309219845c2477c5312c5bf4c1149f12d40d2

SHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.

Still unknown

  • This review does not independently reconcile every 2026 FOMC statement and emergency action; the official table is a bounded snapshot.
  • The venue specifies 25 bp units, its 50 bp example, and the 1–24 bp rule. This review does not invent a rounding convention for other nonstandard cut sizes.
  • A table publication or calendar entry is not a policy outcome or settlement. No trading recommendation, probability model or explanation of price changes is provided.
  • The stored excerpts and HTTP-body hashes establish what was read at their access times. They do not establish continuous freshness or unchanged content after those times.
  • A bounded comparison of the 2026 rate-change table does not cover the venue wording, meeting calendar, or a complete ledger of emergency actions. An automated reading predating this review cannot establish its current coverage.

What to check next

Dates & settlement context

No source-confirmed event date was retained for this capture. Source publication and access times are not event dates.

Venue scheduled end
2027-01-01 04:59:00 UTC · after captureVenue metadata only. This timestamp does not confirm the event deadline, an outcome or final settlement.
Review checkpoint
No review time scheduled.A suggested research action, not a scheduled review or reminder.
Settlement
Not established.No final settlement time or outcome is established by these dates or by this review.
  1. At each later FOMC decision, retain the official statement and target-rate change; add qualifying reduction units under the exact contract rules, keeping scheduled and emergency actions in the same annual ledger.
  2. After the December meeting, keep the annual evidence window open through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; reconcile the full ledger before asserting a final count.
  3. Re-read the exact native contract and the same named official passages. Preserve an unchanged comparison when they are identical; publish a new Check version only for a substantive new reading.
Exact contract context retained with this review
Market
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Contract ID
polymarket:condition-sha256:dd384e3a0cbe82fa2808d7497a2d08a1218c06c1ea989b3f0d4bb714042577ed
Scheduled end metadata
2027-01-01 04:59:00 UTC · not a settlement determination
Declared resolution source
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
Venue description
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Separate resolution rules
Not supplied