Worked example · fixed published research
Read the contract
Does a Bitcoin quote below $120,000 rule out a YES outcome?
The October 11, 2026 review identifies a final Binance BTC/USDT one-minute High within a specified window. A current quote alone cannot answer whether an earlier qualifying candle occurred.
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?
- YES condition
- Any final Binance BTC/USDT one-minute High reaches at least $120,000 within November 24, 2025, 14:00 to December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET, as the venue text specifies.
Binance’s official REST API documentation lists a one-minute kline interval, a High field, and startTime/endTime parameters interpreted in UTC regardless of timeZone.
Inspect the retained evidence
Polymarket · Current Polymarket contract description ↗
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Binance · Binance official Spot API repository: Kline/Candlestick data ↗
minutes | `1m`, […] […] * Note that `startTime` and `endTime` are always interpreted in UTC, regardless of `timeZone`. […] // High price
- This review checks contract wording and API data definitions, not the complete qualifying candle history. It does not establish whether the threshold was crossed.
- The contract’s ET window and the API’s UTC request bounds are different specifications. Their exact timezone conversion and complete interval coverage were not computed here.
Worked example · fixed published research
Compare similar contracts
Do two contracts about Fed rates measure the same thing?
The October 10–11, 2026 reviews describe different tests: the upper bound after one meeting, and annual 25 bp cut units including qualifying emergency actions. Sharing a subject does not make their payouts equivalent.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- YES condition
- The October decision leaves the upper bound unchanged. The retained description also assigns No change if no statement is released by the end of the next scheduled meeting.
- Event date
- October 27–28, 2026: scheduled FOMC meeting. The decision statement, rather than the catalogue end timestamp, is the document to check.
Inspect the retained evidence
Polymarket via HowSure catalogue · Retained Polymarket contract description ↗
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
Federal Reserve · FOMC 2026 meeting calendar ↗
2026 FOMC Meetings […] October 27-28
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
- YES condition
- Exactly two cut units under the venue’s rules during 2026. A 50 bp reduction counts as two units; the count is not simply the number of meetings that cut.
- Evidence window
- Scheduled FOMC statements and qualifying emergency cuts through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Completion of the December 8–9 scheduled meeting alone does not complete this window.
Inspect the retained evidence
Polymarket · Polymarket annual Fed cut-count contract ↗
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Federal Reserve · FOMC 2026 meeting calendar ↗
2026 FOMC Meetings […] October 27-28 December 8-9*
- This amendment retains the venue description from the earlier review. The live venue page was not re-read; the source record keeps its original access time.
- This review does not independently reconcile every 2026 FOMC statement and emergency action; the official table is a bounded snapshot.
Worked example · fixed published research
Review what changed
What did a completed playoff game change in the retained research?
The October 10, 2026 review retained a scheduled NLCS opener. The October 12 review retained MLB’s Game 1 result and series lead. Both reviews retain identical World Series contract wording; the later evidence does not determine its outcome.
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?
MLB schedules Dodgers–Brewers NLCS Game 1 for October 11, 2026, at 8 p.m. ET.
Inspect the retained evidence
MLB · MLB postseason schedule ↗
Sunday Oct 11 NLCS Gm 1
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?
- YES condition
- The Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 MLB World Series, according to the native contract description.
MLB reports a final 2–1 Milwaukee win over the Dodgers for October 11, 2026.
Inspect the retained evidence
Polymarket via Gamma API · Polymarket native contract description ↗
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLB World Series per the rules of MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from MLB (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
MLB · MLB postseason schedule: October 11 NLCS result ↗
Sunday Oct 11 NLCS Gm 1 MIL leads 1-0 FOX LAD LAD @ MIL MIL MIL 2, LAD 1
MLB · MLB Gameday: Dodgers–Brewers final score ↗
MLB Gameday: Dodgers 1, Brewers 2 Final Score (10/11/2026) | MLB.com
- No official World Series winner, elimination finding for the Dodgers, cancellation fallback or venue settlement was verified. Native active/closed flags are operational fields, not settlement evidence.
- Automatic updates cover only the October 11 schedule entry, whose review deadline has passed. Later games and the Gameday page are not monitored by this Check.
Before you use a market in a briefing.
- Find the exact question. Open a result in the captured catalog. Compare its full wording and deadline with the claim you want to discuss. Do not merge similar questions just because they share a topic.
- Read the value and its meaning. The YES price is a captured market-implied probability. Describe it as an observation, not as HowSure’s forecast or the event’s final outcome. If the price is not recorded, say so.
- Check both time fields. Keep “Observed at” with your reference and inspect “Valid until.” If the record is stale, unknown, or has expired since the page loaded, do not call it current. A retained historical observation needs its time and limitation.
- Check the captured rules. Look for the condition for YES, the deadline, and the stated decision process. A captured source URL may be a venue page; its presence does not verify the deciding authority. If the rules do not supply enough information, leave the resolution claim open.
- Carry the limitations into the citation. Include the exact question, public market URL, observed value and source time, plus the freshness and missing-data notes. A copied number without those details loses its context.
A useful sentence identifies what was observed, when, and where to inspect it. Say “the captured Polymarket YES price” rather than “HowSure predicts.” Do not fill a gap in that sentence with an estimate the record does not contain.
For a machine-readable version of this process, use the search-to-citation API walkthrough.
Start with an observation, not a prediction.
The displayed Yes price is a captured market-implied probability from its named venue. It describes the price in the source observation; it is not a HowSure estimate of fair probability, a forecast, an executable quote, or a recommendation.
Market pages preserve a stable HowSure identity and the captured question. They link into the same read-only workspace used to inspect the observation. The public directory is a bounded serving catalog, not the entire venue.
Two clocks. One important distinction.
Observed at is the recorded source observation time. It is not the time you opened this page or the time an API response was generated.
Within freshness window means that the recorded observation has not passed its valid-until time. Stale means that the window has elapsed. Unknown means that the required time information is missing or cannot be evaluated. None of these labels certifies that the source is correct.
Public pages do not fetch new data in the background. The freshness badge changes locally when its recorded window expires; Refresh observations reads a new snapshot. The quoted price, source time and copied citation remain those of the loaded observation until you refresh. If the serving read fails, we show an unavailable state; we do not substitute sample markets.
Absence is a data point — not a number.
An absent price, volume, liquidity, deadline, or resolution source stays absent. The interface says “Not available” or “Not recorded”; the machine-readable representation keeps null.
- A missing probability is not 50%.
- A missing volume is not zero trading activity.
- A successful empty search is not proof that a market does not exist elsewhere.
- A serving failure is not a successful empty result or a missing-market verdict.
The question is not the whole contract.
Read the captured rules, deadline, and linked source where available. The source link may point to the venue’s market page; it is not an independently supplied or verified deciding authority. Check the actual rules and the referenced decision process before making a resolution claim.
HowSure displays captured text without adjudicating an outcome or resolving disputes. Missing rules or unclear authority remain explicit limitations. A quoted price is not an announced result; an announced result is not necessarily a final, undisputed settlement.
A source review supports a specific claim.
Selected contracts include a fixed HowSure source review: named assertions, retained passages, source links, publication information, reading times, limits and next questions. Contract wording and independently read primary material are labelled separately. A supported claim is not a reliability score for the whole market.
A review is attached only to the exact contract and conditions it covers. Other contracts remain unreviewed. Changed terms require a new review; later findings are not attached to earlier observations.
Daily Brief stores the available review at compilation. Earlier editions keep their original content. Public review links contain no account notes; a personal editable copy remains separate. Reviews are not continuously refreshed, and a source passage does not establish the cause of a price movement.
Useful boundaries, kept visible.
HowSure does not establish that a price movement was caused by news, that two markets are equivalent, that a strategy has an edge, or that a source is complete. A digest identifies content; it is not a certification of correctness.
This release does not offer order entry, live or paper execution, paid evidence, portfolio management, or guaranteed alert delivery. Data reuse, redistribution, and model-training rights require separate review of the source terms.
Independent of Polymarket and Hyperliquid. This is research context, not financial or betting advice.
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