October Fed decision: the calendar and the upper bound
The Federal Reserve calendar schedules the October 2026 FOMC meeting for October 27–28.
Reviewed · fixed review version
This review supports only the claims below. It is not a forecast, confirmation of final settlement, or explanation of a price move.
What the sources establish
- Supported claimExternal source
The Federal Reserve calendar schedules the October 2026 FOMC meeting for October 27–28.
The named primary source supports this limited reading; it does not establish this contract’s final outcome.
- Supported claimContract terms
The retained Polymarket description defines the rate by the upper bound of the target federal funds range, rather than its midpoint or lower bound.
This interpretation uses the retained contract description captured on 2026-10-10. The live venue page was not re-read for this amendment; no new venue status or settlement is inferred.
Read the contract this way
- YES condition
- The October decision leaves the upper bound unchanged. The retained description also assigns No change if no statement is released by the end of the next scheduled meeting.Source 1
- NO condition
- A change resolves to another rate-change bracket under the retained rounding rules; do not substitute the midpoint or lower bound of the target range.Source 1
Inspect the evidence
Open a source to inspect its retained excerpt and capture time. Linked pages may change after the review.
01Retained Polymarket contract descriptionPolymarket via HowSure catalogue · Venue contractAccessed
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
Retained /api/workspace generation 6802, observation 2026-10-10T19:11:29.479Z; direct venue re-read unavailable in this review.
Read original source- Published
- Not supplied
- Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprint
9357c37f7ee015a54ce9c11c4be3c166aecac8fdbafd310be1e23898be2dca4fSHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.
02FOMC 2026 meeting calendarFederal Reserve · Primary sourceAccessed
2026 FOMC Meetings […] October 27-28
Heading “2026 FOMC Meetings” and its October entry. Intervening meeting rows are omitted, as marked by […]. Primary calendar re-read for this version; excerpt fingerprint covers this retained text only.
Read original source- Published
- Not supplied
- Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprint
261352fe07ce9e914f320f7d7f14783e19b7e20c923eb9769b4a7d491bd74bfdSHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.
Still unknown
- The October policy decision has not been verified in this review; calendar confirmation is not evidence of no change.
- This amendment retains the venue description from the earlier review. The live venue page was not re-read; the source record keeps its original access time.
- A recorded price is not a forecast. This review does not explain a price move or confirm settlement.
What to check next
October 27–28, 2026Scheduled FOMC meeting · schedule recorded in the reviewFederal Reserve · retained source
Dates & settlement context
Source accessed 2026-10-10 22:48:44.603 UTC. This is the retained schedule, not confirmation that it is still current or that the event occurred.
- Venue scheduled end
- 2026-10-29 03:59:00 UTC · after captureVenue metadata only. This timestamp does not confirm the event deadline, an outcome or final settlement.
- Review checkpoint
- No review time scheduled.A suggested research action, not a scheduled review or reminder.
- Settlement
- Not established.No final settlement time or outcome is established by these dates or by this review.
October 27–28, 2026: scheduled FOMC meeting. The decision statement, rather than the catalogue end timestamp, is the document to check.
Federal Reserve- Read the October decision statement and compare the upper target bound with the immediately preceding target; retain both statements.
- Recheck the schedule if the Federal Reserve changes the meeting date.
Exact contract context retained with this review
- Market
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- Contract ID
polymarket:condition-sha256:cd22800194b2bc38a096e67277f21567ed44b0cd2b746df9d551b2844cc3c781- Scheduled end metadata
- 2026-10-29 03:59:00 UTC · not a settlement determination
- Declared resolution source
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
- Venue description
- The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
- Separate resolution rules
- Not supplied