Back to Analysis · A separate current read of your selected contract. Historical and paused snapshots remain unchanged; returning opens the latest Analysis.
Polymarket · on-demand contract read
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Contract tools
This reads one exact contract on demand. It does not add it to continuous collection, start a price history or create an independently verified Check. Reads may be reused for up to 30 seconds; the recorded times stay unchanged.
YES order book
Observed midpoint
Book identity & receipt
- Best YES bid / ask
- 20% / 21%
- Provider timestamp (raw)
- 1792117634664
- YES token
30630994248667897740988010928640156931882346081873066002335460180076741328029- Book digest
0e4e2eab84856b4ce71613312ce7615c6cd18273bbe63238818b6bce2b41e118
Midpoint is calculated only from a valid two-sided YES book. It is not an executable quote, a forecast, or evidence of settlement.
A possible second round is part of the contract
The current venue description includes a possible second round. Agência Senado’s 2026 voter guide gives October 25 conditionally for presidential/governor runoffs. The October 5 metadata end does not establish a winner or settlement.
Limited to the reviewed claims. Event outcome, settlement and cause of a price move are not established.
Reviewed
Open this check versionOne-time source collection
Inspect the evidence behind the contract
Collect exact source passages and export them with this contract’s identity. No sign-in required.
Recognized complete terms receive a rule-based reading, including supported Fed, GDP, Core PCE/Core CPI monthly and Bitcoin threshold contracts. Election pair readings are available in Compare. Standard collection reads the named Federal Reserve calendar, BEA GDP overview or the fixed PCE overview for recognized Core PCE terms. The PCE overview is context; the exact monthly figure still needs its release. The optional scope adds the exact official Fed decision, GDP release or selected PCE/CPI monthly release when available. Core CPI collection retains terms only until you explicitly request BLS release evidence. A candle query plan does not fetch candles. Other contracts retain their venue text and explain what is missing.
Price for your size
Read YES and NO depth, then estimate buying or selling a number of shares.
Venue-provided conditions
What defines this contract
Description & declared source
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
- Separate resolution rules
- No usable separate rules supplied
- Declared resolution source
- https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/
- Scheduled end
- 2026-10-05 03:59:00 UTC
- Outcomes
- Yes / No
- Venue metadata updated
- 2026-10-16 02:23:07.899097 UTC
The text and source come from the venue. A separate reviewed Check applies only to its explicitly retained claims and context. Scheduled end, closed and inactive flags do not establish final settlement.
Retained conditions history, when available, comes from accepted HowSure catalog observations. This on-demand read is not added to that history.
Conditions history
Versions observed in accepted catalog snapshots. These times do not establish when the venue changed its rules. Earlier history and changes between observations are unknown.
Exact contract & metadata receipt
- Canonical market ID
polymarket:condition-sha256:faba742d37f251beaf2e7f6227eb9071f9511b76983047511f3b56c77f739222- Condition ID
0xdf8e2dc5860027decbe6164555c3c1c9645c3bd33e16b9dc57ca87125047d4a8- Metadata read at
- 2026-10-16 02:27:42.317 UTC
- Metadata digest
b050677db9b918bb1131de5187d655c4302c2120d018b9d06651696c954a9b2a
The digest identifies returned content, not its accuracy. Export this read to retain it; opening this route later may return a newer observation.