The contract includes a second round
The venue description includes a second round, and TSE’s October 9 guidance identifies October 25 for presidential runoff voting. The passed October 5 metadata end does not establish a winner or final settlement.
Reviewed · fixed review version
This review supports only the claims below. It is not a forecast, confirmation of final settlement, or explanation of a price move.
What the sources establish
- Supported claimContract terms
This candidate contract includes a possible second round.
The captured venue description explicitly includes any potential second round. This reading does not certify the venue’s current lifecycle.
- Supported claimExternal source
TSE’s October 9 guidance identifies October 25 for presidential second-round voting.
The TSE guidance describes presidential voting on the second-round date. The earlier calendar provides scheduling context; neither is used here to identify finalists or vote totals.
- Supported claimContract terms
The passed scheduled-end field is not proof that this contract is complete.
This is a bounded interpretation: the captured metadata end is October 5, while the contract includes a second round and the official guidance gives October 25. No settlement record was checked.
- Supported claimContract terms
The contract uses credible reporting first and official TSE results if there is ambiguity.
The source hierarchy is stated in the captured description. The TSE URL is not an unconditional replacement for the full contract wording.
- Supported claimExternal source
The TSE presidential results catalogue describes a resource updated after each round.
The catalogue was read. Its metadata says generation dates are available in individual files; no result file or candidate row was examined.
- Open questionExternal source
The winning candidate and final settlement are not established by this review.
This scoped review covers contract interpretation and voting guidance. It does not verify finalist identities, official totals, certification or the venue’s final settlement.
No supporting source recorded
Read the contract this way
- YES condition
- The candidate named in this exact contract wins the election, including a potential second round.Source 1
- Source hierarchy
- Consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguous, official results from the Brazilian government, specifically TSE.Source 1
- Unresolved-result fallback
- If the result is unknown by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the venue description says the event resolves to Other. The timezone is retained exactly as supplied.Source 1
Inspect the evidence
Open a source to inspect its retained excerpt and capture time. Linked pages may change after the review.
01Captured Polymarket contract descriptionPolymarket · Venue contractAccessed
This market includes any potential second round.
Gamma event 45915 / markets row matching conditionId / description, paragraphs 2–4
Read original source- Published
- Not supplied
- Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprint
214c478c2a539879d6589a09a65d8824e69545b8a68ffd9db249a22545527397SHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.
02Confira os diferentes cenários de votação para o 2º turno das Eleições 2026Tribunal Superior Eleitoral · Primary sourceAccessed
No dia 25 de outubro, data do 2º turno das Eleições 2026 … o eleitorado votará apenas para presidente da República
Opening paragraph; section Apenas presidente; section Horário de votação.
Read original source- Published
- 09/10/2026 17:00; displayed source time
- Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprint
45e76fc617a0e5332f30dd1419ecb0c9b6aa6f6da60882021904e22d8a119567SHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.
03Eleições 2026: confira as principais datas do calendário eleitoralTribunal Superior Eleitoral · Primary sourceAccessed
Nos casos em que houver necessidade de 2º turno, a votação ocorrerá no dia 25 de outubro de 2026.
Third body paragraph before calendar list; Outubro de 2026 section.
Read original source- Published
- 06/03/2026 11:35; displayed source time
- Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprint
ef733e5a809baf4434e51e177b08cada807576d5054daaf1e17a25907bb5c587SHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.
04Resultados - 2026 - Conjunto de dados - Portal de Dados Abertos do TSETribunal Superior Eleitoral · Primary sourceAccessed
Arquivo atualizado ao final de cada turno.
Dados e recursos > Presidente - Votação por seção eleitoral - 2026; Informações Adicionais > Extração dos dados.
Read original source- Published
- Dataset creation: outubro 6, 2026, 14:39 (BRT); displayed source time
- Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprint
199659f0b03ec65c71aaebe7e399044d1e73bba3468880c0700664b8b36e0465SHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.
Still unknown
- A HowSure source reading, not continuous monitoring, a calibrated probability, a trade recommendation or a certification of settlement.
- Two covered candidate contracts from one event were reviewed; this is not complete coverage of the event’s 32 listed contracts at capture.
- A supporting official document does not establish why a price moved. Candidate results, totals and finality remain unchecked.
- Only the cited passages and captured venue context are retained here. Source links may change; excerpt hashes identify the recorded passages, not a complete archived page.
- Article timestamps are retained as displayed because their timezone is not explicitly stated. Separate venue resolutionRules were not supplied.
What to check next
October 25, 2026Presidential second-round voting · schedule recorded in the reviewTribunal Superior Eleitoral · retained source
Dates & settlement context
Source accessed 2026-10-10 17:50:12.740 UTC. This is the retained schedule, not confirmation that it is still current or that the event occurred.
- Venue scheduled end
- 2026-10-05 03:59:00 UTC · passed at captureVenue metadata only. This timestamp does not confirm the event deadline, an outcome or final settlement.
- Review checkpoint
- No review time scheduled.A suggested research action, not a scheduled review or reminder.
- Settlement
- Not established.No final settlement time or outcome is established by these dates or by this review.
October 25, 2026 for second-round voting; a voting date is not a settlement time.
Tribunal Superior Eleitoral- Read the precise presidential result resource with election/round/candidate identity and file generation date before asserting outcomes.
- Check fresh venue rules and lifecycle before carrying this interpretation forward.
- Treat price changes separately from the verified election-calendar claim.
Exact contract context retained with this review
- Market
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- Contract ID
polymarket:condition-sha256:faba742d37f251beaf2e7f6227eb9071f9511b76983047511f3b56c77f739222- Scheduled end metadata
- 2026-10-05 03:59:00 UTC · not a settlement determination
- Declared resolution source
- https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/
- Venue description
- A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
- Separate resolution rules
- Not supplied