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Polymarket · on-demand contract read
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Contract tools
This reads one exact contract on demand. It does not add it to continuous collection, start a price history or create an independently verified Check. Reads may be reused for up to 30 seconds; the recorded times stay unchanged.
YES order book
Observed midpoint
Book identity & receipt
- Best YES bid / ask
- 2.4% / 2.8%
- Provider timestamp (raw)
- 1792127183230
- YES token
67011482977279466154940850972585572311207926803952896052113224614375102184687- Book digest
1b4b2a7ca3eda903bbb232105ace792538b2110f050fb2806fd22c234156934f
Midpoint is calculated only from a valid two-sided YES book. It is not an executable quote, a forecast, or evidence of settlement.
No source review for this market
The captured venue conditions below define this read. Start with these checks before drawing your own conclusion.
- Confirm the complete contract conditions on the venue; only its description is retained here.
- Read a current timestamped observation before comparing your estimate with the market.
- Add evidence for your own assessment. This venue context is not an independent source review.
One-time source collection
Inspect the evidence behind the contract
Collect exact source passages and export them with this contract’s identity. No sign-in required.
Recognized complete terms receive a rule-based reading, including supported Fed, GDP, Core PCE/Core CPI monthly and Bitcoin threshold contracts. Election pair readings are available in Compare. Standard collection reads the named Federal Reserve calendar, BEA GDP overview or the fixed PCE overview for recognized Core PCE terms. The PCE overview is context; the exact monthly figure still needs its release. The optional scope adds the exact official Fed decision, GDP release or selected PCE/CPI monthly release when available. Core CPI collection retains terms only until you explicitly request BLS release evidence. A candle query plan does not fetch candles. Other contracts retain their venue text and explain what is missing.
Price for your size
Read YES and NO depth, then estimate buying or selling a number of shares.
Venue-provided conditions
What defines this contract
Description & declared source
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
- Separate resolution rules
- No usable separate rules supplied
- Declared resolution source
- https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375
- Scheduled end
- 2027-01-01 04:59:00 UTC
- Outcomes
- Yes / No
- Venue metadata updated
- 2026-10-16 05:03:06.680953 UTC
The text and source come from the venue. A separate reviewed Check applies only to its explicitly retained claims and context. Scheduled end, closed and inactive flags do not establish final settlement.
Retained conditions history, when available, comes from accepted HowSure catalog observations. This on-demand read is not added to that history.
Conditions history
Versions observed in accepted catalog snapshots. These times do not establish when the venue changed its rules. Earlier history and changes between observations are unknown.
Exact contract & metadata receipt
- Canonical market ID
polymarket:condition-sha256:a629dbbebf16b1d31b0ce5a383bd18ef95c4b55a4055042b326d23500a4a4ebf- Condition ID
0xbe9d61d80c767264a0adc8a16453fbcaf0413e673e665cc7c14701691143fac0- Metadata read at
- 2026-10-16 05:06:54.397 UTC
- Metadata digest
140b5e60a49b2d42724fdf2ec3082898100d13442c7451da46371fc38e3c994a
The digest identifies returned content, not its accuracy. Export this read to retain it; opening this route later may return a newer observation.