CPI Release / Polymarket

Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?

Open analysis This exact market · retained observation

Archived market · last recorded observation

This market is outside the current HowSure catalog. The price, date and conditions below are retained from an earlier capture; they are not a current quote. Removal from the catalog does not establish closure, settlement or the final outcome.

Last recorded YES price

13.5%

Market-implied probability. The equivalent YES price in cents is shown in Analysis.

Last recorded at2026-10-15 23:04:10.666 UTC

Stale observation

24h change at that capture−2 percentage points

A recorded market price, not a HowSure forecast or an executable quote. Freshness describes its age, not its accuracy.

Read it in context

The recorded closing time is 2026-12-31 23:59:00 UTC. The captured lifecycle is “active”. Closing time and lifecycle alone do not establish final settlement.

Venue description is available; separate resolution rules were not supplied. The venue text and deciding authority have not been independently checked by HowSure.

Not supplied: freshness expiry, separate resolution rules field. These gaps are not filled with estimates.

What a market price can tell you

Market conditions & captured source

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Separate resolution rules

No separate resolution-rules field was supplied. The venue description above may contain resolution conditions; verify their complete current wording at the venue.

Open the captured venue/source URL ↗

A source link may be the venue’s market page. It does not prove the deciding authority. Verify the complete rules and that authority independently; HowSure has not verified or adjudicated the outcome.

Recorded metrics & what to check next

24h source volume: $15,982
Source liquidity: $101,667
Closing time: 2026-12-31 23:59:00 UTC
Lifecycle in source: active

The source records a 24-hour change of −2 percentage points. This is an absolute probability-point change, not a relative percentage return or an explanation of why the price moved.

Before citing the observation

Read a newer, timestamped observation before describing the current market price.
Read the captured venue description below for its stated conditions, then confirm the complete current rules and deadline at the venue. A separate resolution-rules field was not supplied.
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Keep the observation with its context

This page currently shows the last retained observation. It is not an immutable archive; its contents can change or become unavailable. The note keeps the question, time, value and content digest from this read.

Observation note · selectable text

HowSure observation: Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
Venue: Polymarket. Captured Yes price: 13.5%. Recorded 24h change: −2 percentage points.
Source observed at: 2026-10-15T23:04:10.666Z. Valid until: not recorded.
Read at: 2026-10-16T01:32:37.513Z. This is the last recorded observation from an archived market outside the current catalog. It is stale, not a current quote.
Observation content digest: sha256:106cb713d6243f269714c498c48f79179600d67447cf00a1ed810540341ab292.
Last-recorded observation page: https://www.howsure.com/explore/polymarket-141aca9af67f6a5d03b6d4feb31473fb19e3e2310536814cdf53973a8fb0a923
This URL is not an immutable archival citation. Its content may change with later captures or become unavailable. Retain the quoted observation time and digest; the digest identifies content, not factual correctness.

Preserve the exact question, source time and digest when quoting this observation.

Technical provenance & data boundaries

Serving source: HowSure Neon retained capture
Market identity: polymarket:condition-sha256:141aca9af67f6a5d03b6d4feb31473fb19e3e2310536814cdf53973a8fb0a923
Observation digest: sha256:106cb713d6243f269714c498c48f79179600d67447cf00a1ed810540341ab292
Read at: 2026-10-16 01:32:37.513 UTC

The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.

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