Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Venue description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for November 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Separate resolution rules

No separate resolution-rules field was supplied. The venue description above may contain resolution conditions; verify their complete current wording at the venue.

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24h source volume

$43,071

Source liquidity

$313,236

Closing time

2026-12-01 04:59:00 UTC

Lifecycle in source

active

The source records a 24-hour change of −1 percentage points. This is an absolute probability-point change, not a relative percentage return or an explanation of why the price moved.

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Serving source

HowSure Neon capture

Market identity

polymarket:condition-sha256:198ccf01bf1de06a2d37fd442fb09706b24259555460169217086768fdfd6e43

Observation digest

sha256:40d6e8a1100d4fd95353df45f87b82a5fa86cb7c94101a8d4d59f372221caecd

Read at

2026-10-16 00:33:01.182 UTC

The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.