Politics / Polymarket

Will the Democratic Party win the KS-04 House seat?

Open analysis This exact market · retained observation

Archived market · last recorded observation

This market is outside the current HowSure catalog. The price, date and conditions below are retained from an earlier capture; they are not a current quote. Removal from the catalog does not establish closure, settlement or the final outcome.

Last recorded YES price

4.5%

Market-implied probability. The equivalent YES price in cents is shown in Analysis.

Last recorded at2026-10-15 19:28:38.799 UTC

Stale observation

24h change at that capture−1 percentage points

A recorded market price, not a HowSure forecast or an executable quote. Freshness describes its age, not its accuracy.

Read it in context

The recorded closing time is 2026-11-04 04:59:00 UTC. The captured lifecycle is “active”. Closing time and lifecycle alone do not establish final settlement.

Venue description is available; separate resolution rules were not supplied. The venue text and deciding authority have not been independently checked by HowSure.

Not supplied: freshness expiry, separate resolution rules field. These gaps are not filled with estimates.

What a market price can tell you

Market conditions & captured source

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Separate resolution rules

No separate resolution-rules field was supplied. The venue description above may contain resolution conditions; verify their complete current wording at the venue.

Open the captured venue/source URL ↗

A source link may be the venue’s market page. It does not prove the deciding authority. Verify the complete rules and that authority independently; HowSure has not verified or adjudicated the outcome.

Recorded metrics & what to check next

24h source volume: $4,432
Source liquidity: $101,480
Closing time: 2026-11-04 04:59:00 UTC
Lifecycle in source: active

The source records a 24-hour change of −1 percentage points. This is an absolute probability-point change, not a relative percentage return or an explanation of why the price moved.

Before citing the observation

Read a newer, timestamped observation before describing the current market price.
Read the captured venue description below for its stated conditions, then confirm the complete current rules and deadline at the venue. A separate resolution-rules field was not supplied.
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Keep the observation with its context

This page currently shows the last retained observation. It is not an immutable archive; its contents can change or become unavailable. The note keeps the question, time, value and content digest from this read.

Observation note · selectable text

HowSure observation: Will the Democratic Party win the KS-04 House seat?
Venue: Polymarket. Captured Yes price: 4.5%. Recorded 24h change: −1 percentage points.
Source observed at: 2026-10-15T19:28:38.799Z. Valid until: not recorded.
Read at: 2026-10-16T00:32:56.736Z. This is the last recorded observation from an archived market outside the current catalog. It is stale, not a current quote.
Observation content digest: sha256:bd8557764ca527fadaffe33052db50091f9628ee6e7500bb863a5d57bc5be452.
Last-recorded observation page: https://www.howsure.com/explore/polymarket-440499ca5f392aa8f50df1dbc0b96d04491a4cf6801b9c3c8b69db89b2517b4a
This URL is not an immutable archival citation. Its content may change with later captures or become unavailable. Retain the quoted observation time and digest; the digest identifies content, not factual correctness.

Preserve the exact question, source time and digest when quoting this observation.

Technical provenance & data boundaries

Serving source: HowSure Neon retained capture
Market identity: polymarket:condition-sha256:440499ca5f392aa8f50df1dbc0b96d04491a4cf6801b9c3c8b69db89b2517b4a
Observation digest: sha256:bd8557764ca527fadaffe33052db50091f9628ee6e7500bb863a5d57bc5be452
Read at: 2026-10-16 00:32:56.736 UTC

The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.

Back to directory

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