Politics / Polymarket

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Open analysis This exact market · retained observation

Archived market · last recorded observation

This market is outside the current HowSure catalog. The price, date and conditions below are retained from an earlier capture; they are not a current quote. Removal from the catalog does not establish closure, settlement or the final outcome.

Last recorded YES price

24.5%

Market-implied probability. The equivalent YES price in cents is shown in Analysis.

Last recorded at2026-10-15 21:08:08.764 UTC

Stale observation

24h change at that captureNot recorded

A recorded market price, not a HowSure forecast or an executable quote. Freshness describes its age, not its accuracy.

Read it in context

The recorded closing time is 2026-11-04 04:59:00 UTC. The captured lifecycle is “active”. Closing time and lifecycle alone do not establish final settlement.

Venue description is available; separate resolution rules were not supplied. The venue text and deciding authority have not been independently checked by HowSure.

Not supplied: freshness expiry, 24-hour change, separate resolution rules field. These gaps are not filled with estimates.

What a market price can tell you

Market conditions & captured source

Venue description

A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Separate resolution rules

No separate resolution-rules field was supplied. The venue description above may contain resolution conditions; verify their complete current wording at the venue.

Open the captured venue/source URL ↗

A source link may be the venue’s market page. It does not prove the deciding authority. Verify the complete rules and that authority independently; HowSure has not verified or adjudicated the outcome.

Recorded metrics & what to check next

24h source volume: $6,777
Source liquidity: $101,286
Closing time: 2026-11-04 04:59:00 UTC
Lifecycle in source: active

The source does not provide a 24-hour change here; no change is inferred.

Before citing the observation

Read a newer, timestamped observation before describing the current market price.
Read the captured venue description below for its stated conditions, then confirm the complete current rules and deadline at the venue. A separate resolution-rules field was not supplied.
Identify and independently verify the deciding authority from the complete rules. A captured venue/source URL is only a source link, not proof of that authority; HowSure has not independently verified it.

Keep the observation with its context

This page currently shows the last retained observation. It is not an immutable archive; its contents can change or become unavailable. The note keeps the question, time, value and content digest from this read.

Observation note · selectable text

HowSure observation: Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Venue: Polymarket. Captured Yes price: 24.5%. Recorded 24h change: Not recorded.
Source observed at: 2026-10-15T21:08:08.764Z. Valid until: not recorded.
Read at: 2026-10-16T01:33:57.665Z. This is the last recorded observation from an archived market outside the current catalog. It is stale, not a current quote.
Observation content digest: sha256:00fe53aaadcf61c0cedd491bacb6b716367825120876b40c37f203335285f4d3.
Last-recorded observation page: https://www.howsure.com/explore/polymarket-648dbf285e0f11c8196dab4416497f2155d799e759559a333c67800aa51f243a
This URL is not an immutable archival citation. Its content may change with later captures or become unavailable. Retain the quoted observation time and digest; the digest identifies content, not factual correctness.

Preserve the exact question, source time and digest when quoting this observation.

Technical provenance & data boundaries

Serving source: HowSure Neon retained capture
Market identity: polymarket:condition-sha256:648dbf285e0f11c8196dab4416497f2155d799e759559a333c67800aa51f243a
Observation digest: sha256:00fe53aaadcf61c0cedd491bacb6b716367825120876b40c37f203335285f4d3
Read at: 2026-10-16 01:33:57.665 UTC

The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.

Back to directory

Other captured markets in this category. Shared subject matter does not imply the same outcome.

Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?
Recorded YES 0.5%2026-10-16 01:33:34.186 UTC
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Recorded YES 9.5%2026-10-16 01:33:34.097 UTC
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Recorded YES 2.15%2026-10-16 01:33:33.780 UTC
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Recorded YES 25.5%2026-10-16 01:33:34.186 UTC