Politics / Polymarket

Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Open analysis This exact market · retained observation

Archived market · last recorded observation

This market is outside the current HowSure catalog. The price, date and conditions below are retained from an earlier capture; they are not a current quote. Removal from the catalog does not establish closure, settlement or the final outcome.

Last recorded YES price

0.15%

Market-implied probability. The equivalent YES price in cents is shown in Analysis.

Last recorded at2026-10-15 17:46:08.643 UTC

Stale observation

24h change at that capture+0.05 percentage points

A recorded market price, not a HowSure forecast or an executable quote. Freshness describes its age, not its accuracy.

Read it in context

The recorded closing time is 2026-10-28 03:59:00 UTC. The captured lifecycle is “active”. Closing time and lifecycle alone do not establish final settlement.

Venue description is available; separate resolution rules were not supplied. The venue text and deciding authority have not been independently checked by HowSure.

Not supplied: freshness expiry, separate resolution rules field. These gaps are not filled with estimates.

What a market price can tell you

Market conditions & captured source

Venue description

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Separate resolution rules

No separate resolution-rules field was supplied. The venue description above may contain resolution conditions; verify their complete current wording at the venue.

Open the captured venue/source URL ↗

A source link may be the venue’s market page. It does not prove the deciding authority. Verify the complete rules and that authority independently; HowSure has not verified or adjudicated the outcome.

Recorded metrics & what to check next

24h source volume: $5,704
Source liquidity: $199,128
Closing time: 2026-10-28 03:59:00 UTC
Lifecycle in source: active

The source records a 24-hour change of +0.05 percentage points. This is an absolute probability-point change, not a relative percentage return or an explanation of why the price moved.

Before citing the observation

Read a newer, timestamped observation before describing the current market price.
Read the captured venue description below for its stated conditions, then confirm the complete current rules and deadline at the venue. A separate resolution-rules field was not supplied.
Identify and independently verify the deciding authority from the complete rules. A captured venue/source URL is only a source link, not proof of that authority; HowSure has not independently verified it.

Keep the observation with its context

This page currently shows the last retained observation. It is not an immutable archive; its contents can change or become unavailable. The note keeps the question, time, value and content digest from this read.

Observation note · selectable text

HowSure observation: Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Venue: Polymarket. Captured Yes price: 0.15%. Recorded 24h change: +0.05 percentage points.
Source observed at: 2026-10-15T17:46:08.643Z. Valid until: not recorded.
Read at: 2026-10-16T00:33:57.280Z. This is the last recorded observation from an archived market outside the current catalog. It is stale, not a current quote.
Observation content digest: sha256:3ec6cde58a02a9dee46c90c6b7f278a7c4c023938389c5f78e95a2a83887ebf8.
Last-recorded observation page: https://www.howsure.com/explore/polymarket-654b964491a965e06dadd63f29958d805695d64c3b3fa410689e544ef3ef7b35
This URL is not an immutable archival citation. Its content may change with later captures or become unavailable. Retain the quoted observation time and digest; the digest identifies content, not factual correctness.

Preserve the exact question, source time and digest when quoting this observation.

Technical provenance & data boundaries

Serving source: HowSure Neon retained capture
Market identity: polymarket:condition-sha256:654b964491a965e06dadd63f29958d805695d64c3b3fa410689e544ef3ef7b35
Observation digest: sha256:3ec6cde58a02a9dee46c90c6b7f278a7c4c023938389c5f78e95a2a83887ebf8
Read at: 2026-10-16 00:33:57.280 UTC

The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.

Back to directory

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