Politics / Polymarket

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

Open analysis This exact market · latest available observation

Captured YES price

14.5%

Market-implied probability. The equivalent YES price in cents is shown in Analysis.

Observed at2026-10-16 01:34:04.610 UTC

Within freshness windowValid until 2026-10-16 01:35:03.676 UTC

Reported 24h change−1 percentage points

Updates on request

A recorded market price, not a HowSure forecast or an executable quote. Freshness describes its age, not its accuracy.

Read it in context

The recorded closing time is 2027-01-01 04:59:00 UTC. The captured lifecycle is “active”. Closing time and lifecycle alone do not establish final settlement.

Venue description is available; separate resolution rules were not supplied. The venue text and deciding authority have not been independently checked by HowSure.

Not supplied: separate resolution rules field. These gaps are not filled with estimates.

What a market price can tell you

Market conditions & captured source

Venue description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Separate resolution rules

No separate resolution-rules field was supplied. The venue description above may contain resolution conditions; verify their complete current wording at the venue.

Open the captured venue/source URL ↗

A source link may be the venue’s market page. It does not prove the deciding authority. Verify the complete rules and that authority independently; HowSure has not verified or adjudicated the outcome.

Recorded metrics & what to check next

24h source volume: $5,911
Source liquidity: $192,194
Closing time: 2027-01-01 04:59:00 UTC
Lifecycle in source: active

The source records a 24-hour change of −1 percentage points. This is an absolute probability-point change, not a relative percentage return or an explanation of why the price moved.

Before citing the observation

Use Refresh observations after the valid-until time; prices are not refreshed in the background.
Read the captured venue description below for its stated conditions, then confirm the complete current rules and deadline at the venue. A separate resolution-rules field was not supplied.
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Keep the observation with its context

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Observation note · selectable text

HowSure observation: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
Venue: Polymarket. Captured Yes price: 14.5%. Recorded 24h change: −1 percentage points.
Source observed at: 2026-10-16T01:34:04.610Z. Valid until: 2026-10-16T01:35:03.676Z.
Read at: 2026-10-16T01:34:33.804Z. This observation is inside its configured freshness window as of 2026-10-16 01:34:33.804 UTC. The window ends at 2026-10-16 01:35:03.676 UTC; that does not certify the source's accuracy.
Observation content digest: sha256:6ca812d171f2bb89b79ac868af3e686a2271051725e9704fc56a32ac3d093e05.
Current-state page: https://www.howsure.com/explore/polymarket-66d253eef41c9f6db825401266ad1a6a023a5e590ee289be11a20699fe99dbb5
This URL is not an immutable archival citation. Its content may change with later captures or become unavailable. Retain the quoted observation time and digest; the digest identifies content, not factual correctness.

Preserve the exact question, source time and digest when quoting this observation.

Technical provenance & data boundaries

Serving source: HowSure Neon capture
Market identity: polymarket:condition-sha256:66d253eef41c9f6db825401266ad1a6a023a5e590ee289be11a20699fe99dbb5
Observation digest: sha256:6ca812d171f2bb89b79ac868af3e686a2271051725e9704fc56a32ac3d093e05
Read at: 2026-10-16 01:34:33.804 UTC

The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.

Read JSON snapshot Back to directory

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