Economic Policy / Polymarket
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Archived market · last recorded observation
This market is outside the current HowSure catalog. The price, date and conditions below are retained from an earlier capture; they are not a current quote. Removal from the catalog does not establish closure, settlement or the final outcome.
Last recorded YES price
Market-implied probability. The equivalent YES price in cents is shown in Analysis.
Last recorded at
Stale observation24h change at that captureNot recorded
A recorded market price, not a HowSure forecast or an executable quote. Freshness describes its age, not its accuracy.
Read it in context
The recorded closing time is 2026-12-09 23:59:00 UTC. The captured lifecycle is “active”. Closing time and lifecycle alone do not establish final settlement.
Venue description is available; separate resolution rules were not supplied. The venue text and deciding authority have not been independently checked by HowSure.
Not supplied: freshness expiry, 24-hour change, separate resolution rules field. These gaps are not filled with estimates.
What a market price can tell youMarket conditions & captured source
Venue description
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Separate resolution rules
No separate resolution-rules field was supplied. The venue description above may contain resolution conditions; verify their complete current wording at the venue.
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A source link may be the venue’s market page. It does not prove the deciding authority. Verify the complete rules and that authority independently; HowSure has not verified or adjudicated the outcome.
Recorded metrics & what to check next
- 24h source volume
- $5,207
- Source liquidity
- $174,941
- Closing time
- 2026-12-09 23:59:00 UTC
- Lifecycle in source
- active
The source does not provide a 24-hour change here; no change is inferred.
Before citing the observation
- Read a newer, timestamped observation before describing the current market price.
- Read the captured venue description below for its stated conditions, then confirm the complete current rules and deadline at the venue. A separate resolution-rules field was not supplied.
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Keep the observation with its context
This page currently shows the last retained observation. It is not an immutable archive; its contents can change or become unavailable. The note keeps the question, time, value and content digest from this read.
Preserve the exact question, source time and digest when quoting this observation.
Technical provenance & data boundaries
- Serving source
- HowSure Neon retained capture
- Market identity
polymarket:condition-sha256:78a1d287ae934f05887b2da816f6de19aef1ec077b9044d1bc95571d733de677- Observation digest
sha256:a9f19c3e423047fb73dfcd5d36ddb8a66dd5aedc9bfd527f785265213e0e0f35- Read at
- 2026-10-16 01:33:07.778 UTC
The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.