Politics / Polymarket

Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

Open analysis This exact market · latest available observation

Captured YES price

61.5%

Market-implied probability. The equivalent YES price in cents is shown in Analysis.

Observed at2026-10-16 01:34:34.792 UTC

Within freshness windowValid until 2026-10-16 01:35:33.804 UTC

Reported 24h changeNot recorded

Updates on request

A recorded market price, not a HowSure forecast or an executable quote. Freshness describes its age, not its accuracy.

Read it in context

The recorded closing time is 2026-10-25 23:59:00 UTC. The captured lifecycle is “active”. Closing time and lifecycle alone do not establish final settlement.

Venue description is available; separate resolution rules were not supplied. The venue text and deciding authority have not been independently checked by HowSure.

Not supplied: 24-hour change, separate resolution rules field. These gaps are not filled with estimates.

What a market price can tell you

Market conditions & captured source

Venue description

Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve to the electoral list that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia as a result of this election. Electoral lists will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more lists are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If lists remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the list that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named electoral list, as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of which parties make up the list or how its members later organize themselves in the National Assembly. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).

Separate resolution rules

No separate resolution-rules field was supplied. The venue description above may contain resolution conditions; verify their complete current wording at the venue.

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Recorded metrics & what to check next

24h source volume: $11,218
Source liquidity: $143,391
Closing time: 2026-10-25 23:59:00 UTC
Lifecycle in source: active

The source does not provide a 24-hour change here; no change is inferred.

Before citing the observation

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Observation note · selectable text

HowSure observation: Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Venue: Polymarket. Captured Yes price: 61.5%. Recorded 24h change: Not recorded.
Source observed at: 2026-10-16T01:34:34.792Z. Valid until: 2026-10-16T01:35:33.804Z.
Read at: 2026-10-16T01:34:42.024Z. This observation is inside its configured freshness window as of 2026-10-16 01:34:42.024 UTC. The window ends at 2026-10-16 01:35:33.804 UTC; that does not certify the source's accuracy.
Observation content digest: sha256:6c58081494f08fd21a6cf7fae2d339540ead413d7882177b7b62473196a535ed.
Current-state page: https://www.howsure.com/explore/polymarket-a9004b7abb7d53276a8427c8017c300c58027007ce74dc148e9b484b31d08635
This URL is not an immutable archival citation. Its content may change with later captures or become unavailable. Retain the quoted observation time and digest; the digest identifies content, not factual correctness.

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Technical provenance & data boundaries

Serving source: HowSure Neon capture
Market identity: polymarket:condition-sha256:a9004b7abb7d53276a8427c8017c300c58027007ce74dc148e9b484b31d08635
Observation digest: sha256:6c58081494f08fd21a6cf7fae2d339540ead413d7882177b7b62473196a535ed
Read at: 2026-10-16 01:34:42.024 UTC

The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.

Read JSON snapshot Back to directory

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