Big Tech / Polymarket
Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?
Captured YES price
Market-implied probability. The equivalent YES price in cents is shown in Analysis.
Observed at
Within freshness windowValid until 2026-10-16 02:55:33.900 UTCReported 24h change+48.85 percentage points
A recorded market price, not a HowSure forecast or an executable quote. Freshness describes its age, not its accuracy.
Read it in context
The recorded closing time is 2026-10-16 03:59:00 UTC. The captured lifecycle is “active”. Closing time and lifecycle alone do not establish final settlement.
Venue description is available; separate resolution rules were not supplied. The venue text and deciding authority have not been independently checked by HowSure.
Not supplied: separate resolution rules field. These gaps are not filled with estimates.
What a market price can tell youMarket conditions & captured source
Venue description
Tesla is holding an event on October 15, 2026 at 8:55 PM ET where the company is expected to showcase an updated version of the Tesla Roadster. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any version of the Roadster (including a prototype or other non-final version) that is physically present at the event performs a maneuver, under its own power, that makes the entire vehicle, including all four wheels, completely airborne, with no part contacting the ground or any supporting structure, for one continuous interval of at least 1.0 seconds. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying maneuver may use any method of propulsion (e.g., thrusters, suspension, or any other onboard mechanism), but the vehicle must propel itself into the air entirely on its own. A powered jump qualifies even if onboard propulsion does not continuously support the vehicle while airborne. Remote control is permitted. The following will NOT qualify for a "Yes" resolution: - The vehicle using its own momentum to launch off a ramp, incline, or similar structure - The vehicle being lifted, thrown, or otherwise assisted in becoming or remaining airborne by any external means, including but not limited to cables, cranes, rigging, drones, or people - The vehicle using an external power supply during the maneuver - Any footage, simulation, animation, or pre-recorded video of the vehicle appearing to fly, shown at the event but not performed live Safety tethers or other external connections are permitted only if they provide no lifting force, support, propulsion, or power during the qualifying maneuver. Recordings of a maneuver performed live at the qualifying event may be used as evidence; demonstrations recorded before the event and merely played during it do not qualify. This market is specifically about the Tesla event scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 8:55 PM ET. A demonstration at a separate location qualifies if Tesla presents it live as part of the event. A subsequent standalone demonstration does not qualify unless it forms part of an officially announced continuation of the event. If this event is postponed or rescheduled, this market will remain open and will resolve based on the rescheduled event, provided it takes place by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The qualifying maneuver must occur by that deadline. If no qualifying maneuver has occurred by then, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be video of the qualifying event, including Tesla’s official livestream. Official Tesla statements or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to resolve this market, provided they establish that the maneuver met the conditions above. A general claim that the Roadster “flew,” without establishing those conditions, will not alone qualify.
Separate resolution rules
No separate resolution-rules field was supplied. The venue description above may contain resolution conditions; verify their complete current wording at the venue.
Open the captured venue/source URL ↗
A source link may be the venue’s market page. It does not prove the deciding authority. Verify the complete rules and that authority independently; HowSure has not verified or adjudicated the outcome.
Recorded metrics & what to check next
- 24h source volume
- $775,530
- Source liquidity
- $108,593
- Closing time
- 2026-10-16 03:59:00 UTC
- Lifecycle in source
- active
The source records a 24-hour change of +48.85 percentage points. This is an absolute probability-point change, not a relative percentage return or an explanation of why the price moved.
Before citing the observation
- Use Refresh observations after the valid-until time; prices are not refreshed in the background.
- Read the captured venue description below for its stated conditions, then confirm the complete current rules and deadline at the venue. A separate resolution-rules field was not supplied.
- Identify and independently verify the deciding authority from the complete rules. A captured venue/source URL is only a source link, not proof of that authority; HowSure has not independently verified it.
Keep the observation with its context
This link opens the current page. It is not an immutable archive; its contents can change or become unavailable. The note keeps the question, time, value and content digest from this read.
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Technical provenance & data boundaries
- Serving source
- HowSure Neon capture
- Market identity
polymarket:condition-sha256:acd8302a4f051f480356e69e4e8748944e0cff2fc4bbb107d9052272a8aa1298- Observation digest
sha256:11f4882ca6eea6c7838fb9302ebf33aa1106bb15a15b1ebd39e129780d6a05f5- Read at
- 2026-10-16 02:54:41.340 UTC
The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.