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Politics / Polymarket

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Open analysis This exact market · retained observation

Archived market · last recorded observation

This market is outside the current HowSure catalog. The price, date and conditions below are retained from an earlier capture; they are not a current quote. Removal from the catalog does not establish closure, settlement or the final outcome.

Last recorded YES price

2.05%

Market-implied probability. The equivalent YES price in cents is shown in Analysis.

Last recorded at

Stale observation

24h change at that captureNot recorded

A recorded market price, not a HowSure forecast or an executable quote. Freshness describes its age, not its accuracy.

Read it in context

The recorded closing time is 2028-11-08 04:59:00 UTC. The captured lifecycle is “active”. Closing time and lifecycle alone do not establish final settlement.

Venue description is available; separate resolution rules were not supplied. The venue text and deciding authority have not been independently checked by HowSure.

Not supplied: freshness expiry, 24-hour change, separate resolution rules field. These gaps are not filled with estimates.

What a market price can tell you
Market conditions & captured source

Venue description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Separate resolution rules

No separate resolution-rules field was supplied. The venue description above may contain resolution conditions; verify their complete current wording at the venue.

Open the captured venue/source URL ↗

A source link may be the venue’s market page. It does not prove the deciding authority. Verify the complete rules and that authority independently; HowSure has not verified or adjudicated the outcome.

Recorded metrics & what to check next
24h source volume
$3,905
Source liquidity
$361,920
Closing time
2028-11-08 04:59:00 UTC
Lifecycle in source
active

The source does not provide a 24-hour change here; no change is inferred.

Before citing the observation

  • Read a newer, timestamped observation before describing the current market price.
  • Read the captured venue description below for its stated conditions, then confirm the complete current rules and deadline at the venue. A separate resolution-rules field was not supplied.
  • Identify and independently verify the deciding authority from the complete rules. A captured venue/source URL is only a source link, not proof of that authority; HowSure has not independently verified it.

Keep the observation with its context

This page currently shows the last retained observation. It is not an immutable archive; its contents can change or become unavailable. The note keeps the question, time, value and content digest from this read.

Preserve the exact question, source time and digest when quoting this observation.

Technical provenance & data boundaries
Serving source
HowSure Neon retained capture
Market identity
polymarket:condition-sha256:c68aba1f70d63c0859e86b031a08f4dff1ac5789ea374d8e78946358a8337b87
Observation digest
sha256:73ab45085bf22af1c09430bdc76cd7ef24daa6916bdd4d1bafdecbd057df527f
Read at
2026-10-16 00:33:32.736 UTC

The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.

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