Economic Policy / Polymarket
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?
Captured YES price
Market-implied probability. The equivalent YES price in cents is shown in Analysis.
Observed at
Within freshness windowValid until 2026-10-16 01:36:03.998 UTCReported 24h changeNot recorded
A recorded market price, not a HowSure forecast or an executable quote. Freshness describes its age, not its accuracy.
Read it in context
The recorded closing time is 2027-01-28 04:59:00 UTC. The captured lifecycle is “active”. Closing time and lifecycle alone do not establish final settlement.
Venue description is available; separate resolution rules were not supplied. The venue text and deciding authority have not been independently checked by HowSure.
Not supplied: 24-hour change, separate resolution rules field. These gaps are not filled with estimates.
What a market price can tell youMarket conditions & captured source
Venue description
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Separate resolution rules
No separate resolution-rules field was supplied. The venue description above may contain resolution conditions; verify their complete current wording at the venue.
Open the captured venue/source URL ↗
A source link may be the venue’s market page. It does not prove the deciding authority. Verify the complete rules and that authority independently; HowSure has not verified or adjudicated the outcome.
Recorded metrics & what to check next
- 24h source volume
- $5,771
- Source liquidity
- $134,005
- Closing time
- 2027-01-28 04:59:00 UTC
- Lifecycle in source
- active
The source does not provide a 24-hour change here; no change is inferred.
Before citing the observation
- Use Refresh observations after the valid-until time; prices are not refreshed in the background.
- Read the captured venue description below for its stated conditions, then confirm the complete current rules and deadline at the venue. A separate resolution-rules field was not supplied.
- Identify and independently verify the deciding authority from the complete rules. A captured venue/source URL is only a source link, not proof of that authority; HowSure has not independently verified it.
Keep the observation with its context
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Technical provenance & data boundaries
- Serving source
- HowSure Neon capture
- Market identity
polymarket:condition-sha256:d3e4072a9df540846415a4c251060ddcc9ba590b7029656714ed5e0f3155fad9- Observation digest
sha256:908de89631e0143503dd5db2b6e101e1b08f7ab8302ca471bc6774927decab71- Read at
- 2026-10-16 01:35:34.830 UTC
The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.