Politics / Polymarket
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Captured YES price
Market-implied probability. The equivalent YES price in cents is shown in Analysis.
Observed at
Within freshness windowValid until 2026-10-16 01:33:03.689 UTCReported 24h change+4 percentage points
A recorded market price, not a HowSure forecast or an executable quote. Freshness describes its age, not its accuracy.
Read it in context
The recorded closing time is 2026-10-26 03:59:00 UTC. The captured lifecycle is “active”. Closing time and lifecycle alone do not establish final settlement.
Venue description is available; separate resolution rules were not supplied. The venue text and deciding authority have not been independently checked by HowSure.
Not supplied: separate resolution rules field. These gaps are not filled with estimates.
What a market price can tell youMarket conditions & captured source
Venue description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Separate resolution rules
No separate resolution-rules field was supplied. The venue description above may contain resolution conditions; verify their complete current wording at the venue.
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A source link may be the venue’s market page. It does not prove the deciding authority. Verify the complete rules and that authority independently; HowSure has not verified or adjudicated the outcome.
Recorded metrics & what to check next
- 24h source volume
- $26,699
- Source liquidity
- $116,575
- Closing time
- 2026-10-26 03:59:00 UTC
- Lifecycle in source
- active
The source records a 24-hour change of +4 percentage points. This is an absolute probability-point change, not a relative percentage return or an explanation of why the price moved.
Before citing the observation
- Use Refresh observations after the valid-until time; prices are not refreshed in the background.
- Read the captured venue description below for its stated conditions, then confirm the complete current rules and deadline at the venue. A separate resolution-rules field was not supplied.
- Identify and independently verify the deciding authority from the complete rules. A captured venue/source URL is only a source link, not proof of that authority; HowSure has not independently verified it.
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Technical provenance & data boundaries
- Serving source
- HowSure Neon capture
- Market identity
polymarket:condition-sha256:d3e4581a8bd4cfad7e65e81d1ce0e89601208edd134292da767afc14d8471430- Observation digest
sha256:7fe48ed0b38202b02d921d96ebbe79942a9d264687f9984dc35f07abefea8c04- Read at
- 2026-10-16 01:32:34.924 UTC
The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.