Source review · claim by claim
September Core CPI: 0.3% in the retained October 14 release
At the fixed October 14, 2026 capture (22:12 UTC), the BLS September summary reports seasonally adjusted core CPI-U inflation of 0.3% from the preceding month. That displayed one-decimal value matches this contract’s 0.3% equality. Original release-time bytes, treatment of later corrections or revisions, and final venue settlement remain unverified. This is a retained source review, not a successful current server refresh or a final YES/NO determination.
Reviewed · fixed review version
This review supports only the claims below. It is not a forecast, confirmation of final settlement, or explanation of a price move.
What the sources establish
- Supported claimContract terms
The exact contract specifies September 2026 seasonally adjusted core CPI-U inflation from the preceding month, using the official monthly BLS news release at one-decimal precision.
The retained native description names CPI-U excluding food and energy, September 2026, the seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month, and the one-decimal news-release figure. The exact outcome title supplies 0.3% equality.
- Supported claimExternal source
In the retained October 14 BLS September summary, both the opening narrative and the September column of Table A report core monthly inflation of 0.3%.
The narrative says that the index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in September. Table A labels the monthly columns as seasonally adjusted changes from the preceding month; its September core row is 0.3.
- Supported claimExternal source
The same retained release reports headline monthly CPI of 0.6%, core year-over-year CPI of 2.6%, and headline year-over-year CPI of 3.7%; these are different measures from the contract’s core monthly 0.3%.
The opening narrative and complete Table A distinguish all items from all items less food and energy, and separate the seasonally adjusted monthly columns from the unadjusted 12-month column. The annual figures cannot substitute for the required monthly figure.
- Supported claimExternal source
The retained September core monthly figure of 0.3% numerically matches the exact contract’s displayed 0.3% equality at one-decimal precision.
This compares the specified indicator with the retained reported value (0.3 = 0.3). It does not establish that the response contains unchanged original release-time bytes, determine later-correction handling, or verify venue/oracle finality.
- Supported claimExternal source
BLS states that seasonally adjusted data can be revised for up to five years after original release, and the CPI archive index cautions that archived news-release data may have been revised subsequently.
The retained seasonal-revision notice explicitly gives the five-year period. The independently retained index caution distinguishes archived publications from the latest data including revisions. Neither statement proves the original-release value or an applicable contract correction policy.
- Open questionExternal source
The qualifying original release-time value, the contract’s treatment of any later correction or revision, and final venue settlement are not independently established by this Check.
The report was read at its mutable current-summary URL at 22:12:30.582 UTC on October 14, after its printed 12:30 UTC release label. No original-time retained body, correction-history proof, dispute/oracle evidence, or final settlement record was reviewed. The native description contains no explicit later-revision exclusion.
Read the contract this way
- Required indicator and outcome
- September 2026 core CPI-U, excluding food and energy, seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month, exactly 0.3% at the one-decimal precision used in the official BLS monthly news release.Source 1
- Retained reported value
- The retained BLS September narrative and Table A both show 0.3% for core monthly CPI. This matches the displayed equality numerically; the qualifying original value and final YES/NO assessment remain unestablished.Source 1Source 3
- Other reported measures
- Headline monthly CPI: 0.6%. Core 12-month CPI: 2.6%. Headline 12-month CPI: 3.7%. Table A labels the annual figures unadjusted; these are context, not substitutes for core seasonally adjusted monthly CPI.Source 3
- Printed release time and read time
- The source prints October 14, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET (12:30 UTC). This retained summary was read at 22:12:30.582 UTC. A printed release label is not independently measured first online publication; reading on the named date does not prove original release bytes.Source 3
- Delayed-release fallback
- If the relevant figures are absent at the scheduled next CPI report, the contract uses the most recent previous month with available data. The saved summary shows September figures and a next report scheduled for November 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET; this review does not establish absence at the original scheduled time or invoke the fallback.Source 1Source 3
- Revisions and settlement
- BLS seasonally adjusted data may be revised for up to five years. The native terms do not explicitly resolve how a later correction or revision is treated. The mutable current summary and archive index do not establish venue settlement or original release-time fidelity.Source 1Source 2Source 3
Inspect the evidence
Open a source to inspect its retained excerpt and capture time. Linked pages may change after the review.
01Captured contract conditionsPolymarket · Venue contractAccessed
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in September 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month). The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
description field in exact market metadata
Read original source- Published
- Not supplied
- Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprint
f22237a4f1fecad1570caa2ab98cd0f771faef86e1ca396aba7df1ffe9c54689SHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.
02BLS CPI archive indexU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Primary sourceAccessed
BLS Consumer Price Index archive index Requested reference period: September 2026 Current edition: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm Exact archived release: Not listed Archive caution: Data in archived news releases may have been revised in subsequent releases. The latest data, including any revisions, may be obtained from the databases accessible on the program homepage: Consumer Price Indexes: databases.
BLS CPI archive index · selected period, current-edition link and archive revision caution · cpi-release-index-v1
Read original source- Published
- Not supplied
- Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprint
74d6477760700d2e053fbafa9d02b5e81e384db93ed18168cb117521cb8f29e4SHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.
03BLS CPI September 2026 current summaryU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Primary sourceAccessed
Consumer Price Index - September 2026 Release label: 8:30 a.m. (ET) Wednesday, October 14, 2026 Opening release block: Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (ET) Wednesday, October 14, 2026 USDL-26-1574 Technical information: (202) 691-7000 * cpi_info@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cpi Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - SEPTEMBER 2026 The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in September after rising 0.4 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for gasoline rose 9.1 percent in September, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase. The energy index increased 5.2 percent over the month following a 2.1-percent increase in August. The shelter index rose 0.4 percent in September after rising 0.3 percent in August. The index for food was unchanged in September, as the index for food away from home increased 0.2 percent and the index for food at home fell 0.1 percent. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in September, as it did in August. Indexes that increased over the month include recreation, used cars and trucks, education, airline fares, medical care, and apparel. Conversely, the index for communication was among the small number of major indexes that decreased in September. The all items index rose 3.7 percent for the 12 months ending September, a larger increase than the 3.4-percent increase reported for the 12 months ending in August. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6 percent over the year, following a 2.4-percent increase over the 12 months ending August. The energy index increased 20.4 percent for the 12 months ending September. The food index increased 2.5 percent over the last year. Table A caption: Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average Table A monthly horizon: Seasonally adjusted changes from preceding month Table A months: Mar. 2026 | Apr. 2026 | May 2026 | Jun. 2026 | Jul. 2026 | Aug. 2026 | Sep. 2026 Table A yearly horizon: Un-adjusted 12-mos. ended Sep. 2026 Table A headline: 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 3.7 Table A core: 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.6 Table A complete: Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average Seasonally adjusted changes from preceding month Un- adjusted 12-mos. ended Sep. 2026 Mar. 2026 Apr. 2026 May 2026 Jun. 2026 Jul. 2026 Aug. 2026 Sep. 2026 All items 0.9 0.6 0.5 -0.4 0.1 0.4 0.6 3.7 Food 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.5 Food at home -0.2 0.7 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 1.8 Food away from home(1) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 3.5 Energy 10.9 3.8 3.9 -5.7 -1.5 2.1 5.2 20.4 Energy commodities 21.3 5.6 6.7 -9.5 -2.9 4.2 9.3 35.3 Gasoline (all types) 21.2 5.4 7.0 -9.7 -2.9 3.9 9.1 34.2 Fuel oil 30.7 5.8 3.8 -9.2 -1.7 10.1 15.3 74.2 Energy services 0.4 1.6 0.4 -0.7 0.3 -0.4 0.1 4.6 Electricity 0.8 2.1 0.6 -1.0 0.1 -0.2 0.2 4.4 Utility (piped) gas service -0.9 -0.1 -0.5 0.5 0.7 -1.1 -0.3 5.0 All items less food and energy 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 2.6 Commodities less food and energy commodities 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 New vehicles 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 Used cars and trucks -0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 -1.5 Apparel 1.0 0.6 0.3 -0.6 0.1 0.0 0.3 3.4 Medical care commodities(1) -1.0 -0.4 -0.7 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 -0.7 -3.3 Services less energy services 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 3.1 Shelter 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 3.2 Transportation services 0.6 0.3 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 2.7 Medical care services 0.0 0.0 0.5 -0.1 0.6 -0.2 0.3 2.5 Footnotes (1) Not seasonally adjusted. Seasonal revision notice: Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Indexes Seasonally adjusted data, including the U.S. city average all items index levels, are subject to revision for up to 5 years after their original release. Every year, economists in the CPI calculate new seasonal factors for seasonally adjusted series and apply them to the last 5 years of data. Seasonally adjusted indexes beyond the last 5 years of data are considered to be final and not subject to revision. For January 2026, revised seasonal factors and seasonally adjusted indexes for 2021 to 2025 were calculated and published. For series which are directly adjusted using the Census X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal adjustment software, the seasonal factors for 2025 will be applied to data for 2026 to produce the seasonally adjusted 2026 indexes. Series which are indirectly seasonally adjusted by summing seasonally adjusted component series have seasonal factors which are derived and are therefore not available in advance. Determining Seasonal Status Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon certain statistical criteria. Using these criteria, BLS economists determine whether a series should change its status from "not seasonally adjusted" to "seasonally adjusted", or vice versa. If any of the 81 components of the U.S. city average all items index change their seasonal adjustment status from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used in the aggregation of the dependent series for the last 5 years, but the seasonally adjusted indexes before that period will not be changed. For 2026, 36 of the 81 components of the U.S. city average all items index are not seasonally adjusted. Next release label: The Consumer Price Index news release for October 2026 is scheduled to be published on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. (ET). Version: Retained current summary; original release bytes not verified
BLS CPI summary · complete opening, Table A with monthly/annual headers, next-release label and seasonal-revision notice · cpi-monthly-release-v1
Read original source- Published
- Printed embargo/release label: October 14, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET (12:30 UTC); actual first online publication was not independently measured.
- Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprint
4172bcb70451056d6ff2287eeb3a9869cdbeabda5d5d332b6ad6dac6be6f5669SHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.
Still unknown
- A one-off source review prepared with AI assistance; it has not received independent human editorial certification. Structural validation is not independent factual certification.
- This version retains the exact three source excerpts and identity from the local October 14, 2026 capture at 22:12 UTC. It does not claim a successful current read from the published server: live BLS collection failed in the subsequent Vercel candidate check. Source-access failure is not a contract outcome or proof that BLS did not publish.
- No new Daily roster entry, background watch, or automatic source monitoring is enabled by this Check. Access timestamps describe the retained reads, not continuing freshness or a monitoring service.
- The BLS current-summary URL is mutable. The archive index had no exact September archived release listed at this read. The index-linked current summary was checked for the exact September 2026 period; future content at that URL must not replace this saved version.
- The printed October 14 8:30 a.m. ET embargo/release label is not independently measured first online publication. Reading on that date does not prove unchanged original release-time bytes or absence of later corrections.
- BLS warns that seasonally adjusted data can be revised for up to five years. No original-release body or complete correction history was independently verified, and the native contract does not explicitly determine later-correction or revision handling.
- The numerical comparison concerns the retained reported figure and displayed equality. It is not an author probability, trading recommendation, proof of oracle finality, or a final YES/NO determination.
- The retained source passage is a structured extraction of the official HTML opening, complete Table A, next-release label, and seasonal-revision notice. Content hashes bind the exact displayed excerpts; they do not claim that the entire HTTP response body is retained in this Check.
- Gamma closesAt is October 15 at 03:59 UTC. This metadata deadline is not treated as the BLS publication time. Linked PDFs, XLSX files, database histories and any venue dispute or payout records were not reviewed.
What to check next
Dates & settlement context
No source-confirmed event date was retained for this capture. Source publication and access times are not event dates.
- Venue scheduled end
- 2026-10-15 03:59:00 UTC · after captureVenue metadata only. This timestamp does not confirm the event deadline, an outcome or final settlement.
- Review checkpoint
- No review time scheduled.A suggested research action, not a scheduled review or reminder.
- Settlement
- Not established.No final settlement time or outcome is established by these dates or by this review.
- For an original-release or final-resolution assertion, obtain a suitably retained original publication and correction evidence, then inspect this exact contract’s venue resolution and dispute record separately.
- When live BLS access succeeds, review the exact period and retained source version anew. Preserve this fixed Check and its address; do not silently relabel it as a fresh server capture.
- Keep monthly core CPI separate from headline or annual CPI, and review the November report as a distinct period rather than transferring this September figure.
Exact contract context retained with this review
- Market
- Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?
- Contract ID
polymarket:condition-sha256:6b773622562e0f6e0032593ddc86866d9124a6fec856b211aadce125e22fd43c- Scheduled end metadata
- 2026-10-15 03:59:00 UTC · not a settlement determination
- Declared resolution source
- https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm
- Venue description
- This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in September 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month). The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
- Separate resolution rules
- Not supplied