August core PCE: reported 3.0% meets the contract’s threshold
The captured BEA August release reports core PCE inflation of 3.0% year over year, satisfying this contract’s 3.0%-or-less numerical condition. Headline inflation is 3.4%, and core monthly inflation is 0.2%; neither is the specified measure. The original release-time value and final venue settlement were not independently verified.
Reviewed · fixed review version
This review supports only the claims below. It is not a forecast, confirmation of final settlement, or explanation of a price move.
What the sources establish
- Supported claimContract terms
The contract specifies August 2026 core PCE inflation over 12 months, seasonally adjusted, at the one-decimal precision of the official monthly BEA news release.
The complete native description specifies the PCE price index excluding food and energy, the 12-month period ending August, and one-decimal news-release precision.
- Supported claimExternal source
The saved BEA August news release reports headline PCE inflation of 3.4% year over year, core PCE inflation of 3.0% year over year, and core PCE inflation of 0.2% from the preceding month.
The adjacent paragraphs distinguish the headline and excluding-food-and-energy indexes and distinguish the year-over-year and monthly horizons.
- Supported claimExternal source
The reported August core PCE year-over-year value satisfies this exact contract’s 3.0%-or-less numerical condition.
The specified observation is 3.0% and the threshold is at most 3.0%, so 3.0 <= 3.0. This comparison concerns the saved reported figure and condition; it does not establish historical original bytes or venue/oracle finality.
- Supported claimExternal source
BEA warns that after the next release its linked interactive tables will show newer data, while the original release data can be found in the Data Archive.
The Related Data Tables note explicitly distinguishes current links from archived release data. It does not itself establish that this dated news-release page was unchanged since September 30.
Read the contract this way
- YES condition
- The official monthly BEA news-release value for August 2026 core PCE over 12 months is 3.0% or less at one-decimal precision. The saved release reports 3.0%.Source 1Source 2
- NO condition
- The qualifying core year-over-year value is above 3.0%. Headline 3.4% and core month-over-month 0.2% are different measures and cannot substitute for it.Source 1Source 2
- Period and publication
- 12 months ending August 2026; Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026. The official release line states September 30, 2026, 8:30 a.m. EDT.Source 1Source 2
- Precision
- Use the one-decimal core YoY figure in the official monthly news release. Do not infer an unrounded value or recalculate a different indicator from current tables.Source 1
Inspect the evidence
Open a source to inspect its retained excerpt and capture time. Linked pages may change after the review.
01Polymarket exact native contractPolymarket · Venue contractAccessed
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Exact Gamma GET https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3938028; root object id 3938028; conditionId 0x0c35b579b8cfb8cbe4d103413e3280d0ec16673c9410be708e1608c7ed340696; complete description. Identity/description match the retained discovery and earlier native-slug record. The rendered Polymarket page was not read.
Read original source- Published
- Not supplied
- Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprint
216334231bd2ee44b32200928d5d5c1b21f91a8b5b75ed7dbacd4d43ed59477dSHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.
02BEA Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Primary sourceAccessed
Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026 […] EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 a.m. EDT, Wednesday, September 30, 2026 […] From the preceding month, the PCE price index for August increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for August increased 3.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.0 percent from one year ago. […] Next release: October 29, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EDT Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026 […] Note. With the next release, today’s data will be superseded, and the links above will reflect the latest data. The original data featured in this release can then be accessed in BEA’s Data Archive.
News Release BEA 26–43; release title and printed embargo line; adjacent monthly and year-over-year PCE price-index paragraphs; next-release block; Related Data Tables supersession note. Intervening text omitted as marked; title appears before the embargo line earlier on the page. HTML whitespace normalized. Derived text lines 61, 67, 75–76, 90–91 and 107.
Read original source- Published
- 2026-09-30 12:30:00 UTC
- Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprint
664c5a7c150ce2c63488bcc159f44b811eccf738b3e53d5597a26b663f9b3819SHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.
Still unknown
- A one-off review prepared with AI assistance; it has not received independent editorial certification.
- No source monitoring is enabled for this Check. Access timestamps record these reads, not continuing freshness or automatic change detection.
- The dated September 30 page was read on October 12. This does not independently prove the original release bytes or absence of later corrections; no earlier saved body was available.
- The native description uses the release-time one-decimal core YoY statistic. It does not contain the GDP contract’s explicit later-revisions exclusion; that clause must not be imported into PCE rules.
- This observation is for August, not September. The next monthly release shown is September data scheduled for October 29; it cannot inherit August’s value.
- Gamma endDate is September 30 at 13:30Z; official publication text says 8:30 a.m. EDT, which is 12:30Z. The captured metadata-end is not treated as the official publication time.
- Gamma reports the historical contract closed, but no oracle, dispute, payout, or final settlement evidence was checked. The reported-value comparison alone does not verify venue finality.
- The relevant numerical statements were read directly in official HTML. Linked PDFs, XLSX companions, interactive histories, and correction archives were not inspected.
What to check next
Dates & settlement context
No source-confirmed event date was retained for this capture. Source publication and access times are not event dates.
- Venue scheduled end
- 2026-09-30 13:30:00 UTC · passed at captureVenue metadata only. This timestamp does not confirm the event deadline, an outcome or final settlement.
- Review checkpoint
- No review time scheduled.A suggested research action, not a scheduled review or reminder.
- Settlement
- Not established.No final settlement time or outcome is established by these dates or by this review.
- For an assertion about final settlement, inspect the exact contract’s venue resolution and dispute evidence separately from the BEA reported-value comparison.
- For original-release fidelity, retain an original or archived publication and check for corrections; keep later revised interactive data separate.
- For a September PCE contract, obtain the actual September monthly release and re-check its exact native period and precision instead of transferring August’s result.
Exact contract context retained with this review
- Market
- Will Core PCE YoY be 3.0% or less in August?
- Contract ID
polymarket:condition-sha256:a9433138b44f8ecf20792ff3bd3fc9f9e1af08e6a8eb66005615cdb03d756ec0- Scheduled end metadata
- 2026-09-30 13:30:00 UTC · not a settlement determination
- Declared resolution source
- https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index
- Venue description
- This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
- Separate resolution rules
- Not supplied