ECB September: the deposit-rate decision matches 25 bp
The official September 10 decision supports the contract’s 25 bp increase criterion: the deposit facility was included in the increase. The September 16 effective date is distinct from the decision date. This source review does not certify venue settlement.
Reviewed · fixed review version
This review supports only the claims below. It is not a forecast, confirmation of final settlement, or explanation of a price move.
What the sources establish
- Supported claimContract terms
The contract measures the meeting’s change in the deposit facility rate, not the resulting rate level or a different ECB rate.
The retained native description identifies the deposit facility and the September meeting; the exact contract question supplies the 25 bp outcome.
- Supported claimExternal source
The September 10 ECB statement supports a 25 bp increase, with the deposit facility at 2.50% effective September 16.
The complete Key ECB interest rates paragraph applies the increase to all three named rates and gives their respective new levels. This is an announced decision, not a forecast.
- Open questionExternal source
This exact market has completed final venue settlement.
Native Gamma metadata reports resolved, but its summary fields do not independently verify dispute finality or an available payout. The monetary-policy statement establishes the policy decision, not the venue settlement process.
Read the contract this way
- YES condition
- A 25 bp deposit-facility rate increase resulting from the September 2026 ECB meeting, under the venue rounding rules.Source 1
- Measurement
- Change from the pre-meeting deposit facility rate; a rate level in percent is not the size of the change in basis points.Source 1
- Announcement and effect
- Decision dated September 10; new rates effective September 16. The contract permits resolution once the relevant meeting release is issued.Source 1Source 2
- Other cases
- Specified postponement/cancellation and rounding rules apply; emergency actions unrelated to this meeting are excluded. Read the complete retained description for those branches.Source 1
Inspect the evidence
Open a source to inspect its retained excerpt and capture time. Linked pages may change after the review.
01Polymarket September ECB 25 bp contractPolymarket · Venue contractAccessed
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Gamma GET /markets/2587797, complete description from the exact native condition ID. Read by numeric ID after the exact slug query returned an empty list; identity fields agree with the saved event roster.
Read original source- Published
- Not supplied
- Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprint
f37e5834be20144484413c10ba5a2db8e464475bded8afa7763b4114755fec6eSHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.
02Monetary policy decisions — September 10, 2026European Central Bank · Primary sourceAccessed
The Governing Council decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. […] deposit facility […] 2.50% […] 16 September 2026.
Key ECB interest rates: complete first sentence; selected deposit-facility name, its first respective rate level and effective date from the following sentence. Intervening wording marked […]. The full paragraph was read.
Read original source- Published
- 10 September 2026; publication time not supplied
- Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprint
c2d6eba3e99e7a5109501df30e1064dfd94a29cfa1910a67dd4f21a5effe89daSHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.
Still unknown
- A one-off review prepared with AI assistance; it has not received independent editorial certification.
- No source monitoring is enabled for this Check. The source timestamp records this reading, not continuing freshness.
- The policy decision supports the specified criterion; this Check does not verify venue settlement, payout availability or a trading opportunity.
What to check next
Dates & settlement context
No source-confirmed event date was retained for this capture. Source publication and access times are not event dates.
- Venue scheduled end
- 2026-09-10 11:59:00 UTC · passed at captureVenue metadata only. This timestamp does not confirm the event deadline, an outcome or final settlement.
- Review checkpoint
- No review time scheduled.A suggested research action, not a scheduled review or reminder.
- Settlement
- Not established.No final settlement time or outcome is established by these dates or by this review.
- If settlement status matters, inspect the exact venue resolution record rather than inferring it from this policy release.
Exact contract context retained with this review
- Market
- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
- Contract ID
polymarket:condition-sha256:a5f5c6cce9b208ea2f8e628b60a48440d8f0a8c1173e559ece821b7dbe918964- Scheduled end metadata
- 2026-09-10 11:59:00 UTC · not a settlement determination
- Declared resolution source
- https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
- Venue description
- This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
- Separate resolution rules
- Not supplied