Q3 GDP: the 2.2% reading belongs to Q2 and its third estimate
The captured BEA release reports Q2 2026 GDP growth of 2.2% in the third estimate. This contract requires the Q3 advance estimate, scheduled for October 29. The captured Q2 figure cannot determine the Q3 2.0%–2.5% condition; the needed Q3 observation is absent from this source set.
Reviewed · fixed review version
This review supports only the claims below. It is not a forecast, confirmation of final settlement, or explanation of a price move.
What the sources establish
- Supported claimContract terms
The ordinary rule uses the seasonally adjusted, annualized Q3 2026 GDP advance estimate; revisions made after its release do not replace that observation.
The complete native description explicitly fixes the quarter and advance-estimate vintage, excludes later revisions, and supplies delayed-release fallbacks.
- Supported claimExternal source
The captured BEA publication reports real GDP growth of 2.2% at an annual rate for Q2 2026 in its third estimate. Its Q2 comparison table reports 1.5% for the advance estimate.
The opening paragraph identifies Q2 and the third estimate. The SAAR table places 1.5 under Advance Estimate and 2.2 under Third Estimate; this is a report of that saved table, not a reconstruction of historical release bytes.
- Supported claimExternal source
BEA schedules the Q3 2026 GDP advance estimate for October 29, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
The dated Q2 release states the next-release date, time, time zone and period; the current upcoming schedule corroborates the date and report name. A scheduled publication is not an outcome.
- Open questionExternal source
The available evidence establishes that Q3 2026 GDP falls in the contract’s 2.0%–2.5% bracket.
No Q3 advance figure is present in these sources. Q2’s 2.2% is a different quarter and estimate vintage. The previous-figure fallback has a separate future deadline and is not triggered by a missing result before the ordinary scheduled release.
Read the contract this way
- YES condition
- The qualifying Q3 real GDP annualized figure is at least 2.0% and below 2.5%. Under the venue’s shared-boundary rule, exactly 2.0% enters this bracket; exactly 2.5% belongs to the higher bracket.Source 1
- NO condition
- The qualifying observation belongs to another bracket under the venue’s boundary rule. The currently captured Q2 observation does not decide this.Source 1Source 2
- Required period and vintage
- Q3 2026, seasonally adjusted and annualized, ordinarily the advance estimate. GDP revisions made after that release do not replace the contractual figure.Source 1
- Next checkpoint
- October 29, 2026, 8:30 a.m. EDT: scheduled Q3 GDP advance release. Check its actual publication and value; the date can change.Source 2Source 3
- Delayed-release fallback
- If no advance estimate is released, use the first official Q3 real GDP figure. Only if no official estimate appears by the scheduled next-quarter advance release does the most recent previous BEA figure apply. That later deadline has not been verified here.Source 1
Inspect the evidence
Open a source to inspect its retained excerpt and capture time. Linked pages may change after the review.
01Polymarket exact native contractPolymarket · Venue contractAccessed
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Exact Gamma GET https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3247816; root object id 3247816; conditionId 0xe4f31ce91f6b0d71b926ffdf48068ebb101081d3678354d205483f1bd22ee6b2; complete description. Identity/description match the retained discovery and earlier native-slug record. The rendered Polymarket page was not read.
Read original source- Published
- Not supplied
- Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprint
7ca8772fc24ee9e41a7fbd5e04dee37ccec4d092270ccf794921b75f99774214SHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.
02BEA GDP, second quarter 2026, third estimateU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Primary sourceAccessed
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the second quarter of 2026 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.5 percent (revised). […] Real GDP and Related Measures | [Percent change (SAAR) from 2026:Q1 to 2026:Q2] | | Advance Estimate | Second Estimate | Third Estimate | Real GDP | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.2 | […] Next release: October 29, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EDT GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026
News Release BEA 26—42; opening paragraph; Real GDP and Related Measures table, SAAR Q1-to-Q2 header, Advance/Second/Third column headers and Real GDP row; next-release block before Technical Notes. Intervening text omitted as marked. HTML whitespace normalized and table cells separated by |. Saved derived text lines 70, 81–84, 130–131.
Read original source- Published
- 2026-09-30 12:30:00 UTC
- Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprint
0f03b1dcbb7a95778925ffec7da102fa515faa158b8c65131a202739e5ed378eSHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.
03BEA upcoming release scheduleU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Primary sourceAccessed
October 29 8:30 AM | News | GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026 |
Release Schedule, Upcoming Releases, Year 2026; October 29 8:30 AM row for GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026. HTML whitespace normalized; cells separated by |. Derived text lines 80–83. The Q2 news-release next-release block explicitly specifies EDT.
Read original source- Published
- Not supplied
- Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprint
c5392056a65816fdd5c389a356d38b06ba7ba72efebbabd552b27bb7c5b261ecSHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.
Still unknown
- A one-off review prepared with AI assistance; it has not received independent editorial certification.
- No source monitoring is enabled for this Check. The saved reads establish only the passages available at the listed access times.
- No qualifying Q3 GDP observation is in the collected evidence. The current schedule does not prove a future value, exhaustive absence of another publication, or settlement.
- Q2 is wrong-period evidence for the ordinary Q3 condition. Its third-estimate number cannot be substituted for a Q3 advance estimate; the delayed-release fallback needs its own trigger.
- The next-quarter advance-release deadline was not retrieved. Linked PDF/XLSX companions and original historical Q2 release bytes were not inspected; the vintage comparison is directly from the current official HTML table.
- No probability forecast, trading recommendation, oracle decision, payout, or final settlement was verified.
What to check next
Dates & settlement context
No source-confirmed event date was retained for this capture. Source publication and access times are not event dates.
- Venue scheduled end
- 2026-10-30 03:59:00 UTC · after captureVenue metadata only. This timestamp does not confirm the event deadline, an outcome or final settlement.
- Review checkpoint
- No review time scheduled.A suggested research action, not a scheduled review or reminder.
- Settlement
- Not established.No final settlement time or outcome is established by these dates or by this review.
- To evaluate the Q3 condition, retain the actual Q3 advance-release page after publication, including the real GDP annualized figure and release vintage.
- If the advance release is missing, verify the first official Q3 figure and the scheduled next-quarter advance-release deadline before applying either fallback.
- Keep any later revisions separate from the contractual first-release observation; record corrections and re-read the native description before a new review.
Exact contract context retained with this review
- Market
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
- Contract ID
polymarket:condition-sha256:d81c56e557138d5478c549715cbf0f5c9ff4edbc29f35d9550d87563281a9f0a- Scheduled end metadata
- 2026-10-30 03:59:00 UTC · not a settlement determination
- Declared resolution source
- https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
- Venue description
- This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
- Separate resolution rules
- Not supplied