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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Open current market analysis ↗
Source review · claim by claim

Hormuz: the published seven-day series and its revisions

PortWatch warns of GPS jamming, AIS spoofing and vessels going dark. The retained contract tests IMF’s published seven-day transit-call average against 60; it does not test a general claim that shipping is normal.

Reviewed · fixed review version

This review supports only the claims below. It is not a forecast, confirmation of final settlement, or explanation of a price move.

What the sources establish

  1. Supported claimExternal source

    PortWatch’s Hormuz disruption page warns of reports of GPS jamming, AIS spoofing and vessels going dark.

    The warning concerns the data’s limitations. It is not a measurement of unreported traffic or proof of a threshold crossing.

    Source 2: IMF PortWatch
  2. Supported claimContract terms

    The contract requires IMF PortWatch’s published seven-day average of transit calls to be at least 60 for a qualifying date.

    An individual day, cargo tonnage, or another provider’s count is not the named series and statistic.

    Source 1: Polymarket via HowSure catalogue
  3. Supported claimContract terms

    A later revision cannot disqualify a previously published qualifying point under the retained rules.

    The rules also stop considering revisions after data for October 31 is published and provide a separate window for obvious clerical errors.

    Source 1: Polymarket via HowSure catalogue
  4. Open questionExternal source

    Whether a qualifying published seven-day value has occurred remains unresolved in this review.

    Neither the complete numeric series nor its historical publication versions were downloaded and checked.

    No supporting source recorded

Read the contract this way

YES condition
IMF publishes a seven-day moving average of Hormuz transit calls at or above 60 for any date in the market window through October 31, 2026.Source 1
NO condition
No qualifying value is published once the final-date data are available, or after the retained 14-calendar-day ET fallback if final-date data never arrive.Source 1

Inspect the evidence

Open a source to inspect its retained excerpt and capture time. Linked pages may change after the review.

01Retained Polymarket contract descriptionPolymarket via HowSure catalogue · Venue contractAccessed
Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

Retained /api/workspace generation 6880, observation 2026-10-10T20:10:47.210Z; exact contract description. No direct venue re-read in this review.

Read original source
Published
Not supplied
Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprintef6395628ab50d29a794bc2b26ee78e4d8ebb2440b43181a9df7bceed6938bfd

SHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.

02Trade Disruptions in the Strait of HormuzIMF PortWatch · Primary sourceAccessed
reports of GPS jamming, AIS spoofing, and vessels going dark.

Warning above chokepoint charts. Read through public ArcGIS Hub page-content item cc317ba850e34c4dadbead6f7b336fb1/data after the rendered HTML reader returned no body text; no numeric chart series retained.

Read original source
Published
Not supplied
Accessed
Retained excerpt fingerprint2d8921424c03c801886a1a3c9ad64810a39f7ab31886c7ee84cd64e32184ebc7

SHA-256 identifies this retained excerpt, not the full source page or its accuracy.

Still unknown

  • The IMF warning is verified; current daily transits, a seven-day average and a threshold result are not verified.
  • The dynamic chart/download was not read as a numeric data series, and no historical revision ledger is available in this review.
  • A discrepancy with another AIS provider is not automatically the obvious clerical-error exception in the retained contract.
  • Venue conditions are the exact retained catalogue text; the live venue page was not re-read.
  • This review does not estimate fair probability, explain a price move, or confirm final settlement.

What to check next

Dates & settlement context

No source-confirmed event date was retained for this capture. Source publication and access times are not event dates.

Venue scheduled end
2026-11-01 03:59:00 UTC · after captureVenue metadata only. This timestamp does not confirm the event deadline, an outcome or final settlement.
Review checkpoint
No review time scheduled.A suggested research action, not a scheduled review or reminder.
Settlement
Not established.No final settlement time or outcome is established by these dates or by this review.
Publication and revision checkpoint · retained review text

Retain each publication’s value and timestamp through October 31 data and the specified fallback. Later downloaded values alone cannot reconstruct a formerly qualifying publication.

Polymarket via HowSure catalogue
  1. Read the IMF Hormuz downloadable series or chart and record the published seven-day average, qualifying date and publication time; do not substitute a third-party count.
  2. Preserve future versions and search for prior qualifying publications, because a revised latest download cannot establish that no earlier qualifying value was published.
Exact contract context retained with this review
Market
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Contract ID
polymarket:condition-sha256:1a0de543a514d9a27aae0a305faa64327ed1c2f187d20c702c8324ef1d65b927
Scheduled end metadata
2026-11-01 03:59:00 UTC · not a settlement determination
Declared resolution source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730
Venue description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for October 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Separate resolution rules
Not supplied