Politics / Polymarket
Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
Archived market · last recorded observation
This market is outside the current HowSure catalog. The price, date and conditions below are retained from an earlier capture; they are not a current quote. Removal from the catalog does not establish closure, settlement or the final outcome.
Last recorded YES price
Market-implied probability. The equivalent YES price in cents is shown in Analysis.
Last recorded at
Stale observation24h change at that capture−9 percentage points
A recorded market price, not a HowSure forecast or an executable quote. Freshness describes its age, not its accuracy.
Read it in context
The recorded closing time is 2026-11-30 04:59:00 UTC. The captured lifecycle is “active”. Closing time and lifecycle alone do not establish final settlement.
Venue description is available; separate resolution rules were not supplied. The venue text and deciding authority have not been independently checked by HowSure.
Not supplied: freshness expiry, separate resolution rules field. These gaps are not filled with estimates.
What a market price can tell youMarket conditions & captured source
Venue description
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election, counted according to the attribution rules below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received nationwide by each party, including votes attributed to its regional designations, with higher vote totals ranking higher. Votes attributed to PSC will count toward PSOE. Votes cast for a joint coalition list will not count toward an individual constituent party for this tie-break, even where elected candidates from that list count toward the party’s seat total. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be counted where they are attributed to the specified party. If a listed party contests the election under a regional designation, all seats and votes attributed to that designation will count toward the listed party. For example, the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) will be treated as a regional designation of PSOE. If a listed party contests as part of a coalition, only seats won by candidates who were members of the listed party on election day will count toward that party. Except as provided above, seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).
Separate resolution rules
No separate resolution-rules field was supplied. The venue description above may contain resolution conditions; verify their complete current wording at the venue.
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Recorded metrics & what to check next
- 24h source volume
- $9,771
- Source liquidity
- $100,307
- Closing time
- 2026-11-30 04:59:00 UTC
- Lifecycle in source
- active
The source records a 24-hour change of −9 percentage points. This is an absolute probability-point change, not a relative percentage return or an explanation of why the price moved.
Before citing the observation
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Technical provenance & data boundaries
- Serving source
- HowSure Neon retained capture
- Market identity
polymarket:condition-sha256:292f7b1479ac9d4acd582cfb94565585d44a30af09769acd802f7b2117362050- Observation digest
sha256:9494ff261575d62147736ea4b1cef23b3aa82a1d4d772b6f4970d064aad2db9c- Read at
- 2026-10-23 22:49:48.042 UTC
The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.