Politics / Polymarket
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Archived market · last recorded observation
This market is outside the current HowSure catalog. The price, date and conditions below are retained from an earlier capture; they are not a current quote. Removal from the catalog does not establish closure, settlement or the final outcome.
Last recorded YES price
Market-implied probability. The equivalent YES price in cents is shown in Analysis.
Last recorded at
Stale observation24h change at that capture−2 percentage points
A recorded market price, not a HowSure forecast or an executable quote. Freshness describes its age, not its accuracy.
Read it in context
The recorded closing time is 2026-10-28 03:59:00 UTC. The captured lifecycle is “active”. Closing time and lifecycle alone do not establish final settlement.
Venue description is available; separate resolution rules were not supplied. The venue text and deciding authority have not been independently checked by HowSure.
Not supplied: freshness expiry, separate resolution rules field. These gaps are not filled with estimates.
What a market price can tell youMarket conditions & captured source
Venue description
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Separate resolution rules
No separate resolution-rules field was supplied. The venue description above may contain resolution conditions; verify their complete current wording at the venue.
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Recorded metrics & what to check next
- 24h source volume
- $7,124
- Source liquidity
- $100,480
- Closing time
- 2026-10-28 03:59:00 UTC
- Lifecycle in source
- active
The source records a 24-hour change of −2 percentage points. This is an absolute probability-point change, not a relative percentage return or an explanation of why the price moved.
Before citing the observation
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- Read the captured venue description below for its stated conditions, then confirm the complete current rules and deadline at the venue. A separate resolution-rules field was not supplied.
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Keep the observation with its context
This page currently shows the last retained observation. It is not an immutable archive; its contents can change or become unavailable. The note keeps the question, time, value and content digest from this read.
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Technical provenance & data boundaries
- Serving source
- HowSure Neon retained capture
- Market identity
polymarket:condition-sha256:3ab1fd86478a15b09aeb0d9e922b0f9125f7b0bf9968486c4ff04b9ff1b82b81- Observation digest
sha256:b89c164ed630525fd273e0da1adc75b4e90d743db21c94b2225325b34b555f3a- Read at
- 2026-10-19 09:02:02.589 UTC
The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.