Politics / Polymarket
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?
Captured YES price
Market-implied probability. The equivalent YES price in cents is shown in Analysis.
Observed at
Within freshness windowValid until 2026-10-16 23:26:59.462 UTCReported 24h change−1.5 percentage points
A recorded market price, not a HowSure forecast or an executable quote. Freshness describes its age, not its accuracy.
Read it in context
The recorded closing time is 2026-11-04 04:59:00 UTC. The captured lifecycle is “active”. Closing time and lifecycle alone do not establish final settlement.
Venue description is available; separate resolution rules were not supplied. The venue text and deciding authority have not been independently checked by HowSure.
Not supplied: separate resolution rules field. These gaps are not filled with estimates.
What a market price can tell youMarket conditions & captured source
Venue description
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Separate resolution rules
No separate resolution-rules field was supplied. The venue description above may contain resolution conditions; verify their complete current wording at the venue.
Open the captured venue/source URL ↗
A source link may be the venue’s market page. It does not prove the deciding authority. Verify the complete rules and that authority independently; HowSure has not verified or adjudicated the outcome.
Recorded metrics & what to check next
- 24h source volume
- $9,032
- Source liquidity
- $186,088
- Closing time
- 2026-11-04 04:59:00 UTC
- Lifecycle in source
- active
The source records a 24-hour change of −1.5 percentage points. This is an absolute probability-point change, not a relative percentage return or an explanation of why the price moved.
Before citing the observation
- Use Refresh observations after the valid-until time; prices are not refreshed in the background.
- Read the captured venue description below for its stated conditions, then confirm the complete current rules and deadline at the venue. A separate resolution-rules field was not supplied.
- Identify and independently verify the deciding authority from the complete rules. A captured venue/source URL is only a source link, not proof of that authority; HowSure has not independently verified it.
Keep the observation with its context
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Preserve the exact question, source time and digest when quoting this observation.
Technical provenance & data boundaries
- Serving source
- HowSure Neon capture
- Market identity
polymarket:condition-sha256:4e880193c2f60933a79a156583bfa9849a448eca75135eb72e70a86d212ee71a- Observation digest
sha256:d960e6129e7cfd44ff6c8008e09d260d762044256adbbfadbaa066bef662df99- Read at
- 2026-10-16 23:26:14.668 UTC
The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.