Politics / Polymarket
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Archived market · last recorded observation
This market is outside the current HowSure catalog. The price, date and conditions below are retained from an earlier capture; they are not a current quote. Removal from the catalog does not establish closure, settlement or the final outcome.
Last recorded YES price
Market-implied probability. The equivalent YES price in cents is shown in Analysis.
Last recorded at
Stale observation24h change at that capture−3 percentage points
A recorded market price, not a HowSure forecast or an executable quote. Freshness describes its age, not its accuracy.
Read it in context
The recorded closing time is 2026-11-04 04:59:00 UTC. The captured lifecycle is “active”. Closing time and lifecycle alone do not establish final settlement.
Venue description is available; separate resolution rules were not supplied. The venue text and deciding authority have not been independently checked by HowSure.
Not supplied: freshness expiry, separate resolution rules field. These gaps are not filled with estimates.
What a market price can tell youMarket conditions & captured source
Venue description
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Separate resolution rules
No separate resolution-rules field was supplied. The venue description above may contain resolution conditions; verify their complete current wording at the venue.
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A source link may be the venue’s market page. It does not prove the deciding authority. Verify the complete rules and that authority independently; HowSure has not verified or adjudicated the outcome.
Recorded metrics & what to check next
- 24h source volume
- $2,879
- Source liquidity
- $105,493
- Closing time
- 2026-11-04 04:59:00 UTC
- Lifecycle in source
- active
The source records a 24-hour change of −3 percentage points. This is an absolute probability-point change, not a relative percentage return or an explanation of why the price moved.
Before citing the observation
- Read a newer, timestamped observation before describing the current market price.
- Read the captured venue description below for its stated conditions, then confirm the complete current rules and deadline at the venue. A separate resolution-rules field was not supplied.
- Identify and independently verify the deciding authority from the complete rules. A captured venue/source URL is only a source link, not proof of that authority; HowSure has not independently verified it.
Keep the observation with its context
This page currently shows the last retained observation. It is not an immutable archive; its contents can change or become unavailable. The note keeps the question, time, value and content digest from this read.
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Technical provenance & data boundaries
- Serving source
- HowSure Neon retained capture
- Market identity
polymarket:condition-sha256:5b730e43de666f0b38341f9fcd96eafaf50657b2df3d3e2e89876c55fbd822d7- Observation digest
sha256:209401673a9150d5e4aac1244806519d154834f6f3e1f8ce85ef2e45f2ccff14- Read at
- 2026-10-29 03:50:50.260 UTC
The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.