Skip to content
howsure
Developers
My work

Politics / Polymarket

France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?

Open analysis This exact market · retained observation

Archived market · last recorded observation

This market is outside the current HowSure catalog. The price, date and conditions below are retained from an earlier capture; they are not a current quote. Removal from the catalog does not establish closure, settlement or the final outcome.

Last recorded YES price

3.45%

Market-implied probability. The equivalent YES price in cents is shown in Analysis.

Last recorded at

Stale observation

24h change at that captureNot recorded

A recorded market price, not a HowSure forecast or an executable quote. Freshness describes its age, not its accuracy.

Read it in context

The recorded closing time is 2027-01-01 04:59:00 UTC. The captured lifecycle is “active”. Closing time and lifecycle alone do not establish final settlement.

Venue description is available; separate resolution rules were not supplied. The venue text and deciding authority have not been independently checked by HowSure.

Not supplied: freshness expiry, 24-hour change, separate resolution rules field. These gaps are not filled with estimates.

What a market price can tell you
Market conditions & captured source

Venue description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of siege" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count. If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, or the deployment or requisition of the armed forces for domestic security operations (e.g. Opération Sentinelle) without a decree declaring a state of siege will not count. Statements that a state of siege is being considered, or informal references to "martial law", will not count unless accompanied by a qualifying decree. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Separate resolution rules

No separate resolution-rules field was supplied. The venue description above may contain resolution conditions; verify their complete current wording at the venue.

Open the captured venue/source URL ↗

A source link may be the venue’s market page. It does not prove the deciding authority. Verify the complete rules and that authority independently; HowSure has not verified or adjudicated the outcome.

Recorded metrics & what to check next
24h source volume
$32,858
Source liquidity
$108,981
Closing time
2027-01-01 04:59:00 UTC
Lifecycle in source
active

The source does not provide a 24-hour change here; no change is inferred.

Before citing the observation

  • Read a newer, timestamped observation before describing the current market price.
  • Read the captured venue description below for its stated conditions, then confirm the complete current rules and deadline at the venue. A separate resolution-rules field was not supplied.
  • Identify and independently verify the deciding authority from the complete rules. A captured venue/source URL is only a source link, not proof of that authority; HowSure has not independently verified it.

Keep the observation with its context

This page currently shows the last retained observation. It is not an immutable archive; its contents can change or become unavailable. The note keeps the question, time, value and content digest from this read.

Preserve the exact question, source time and digest when quoting this observation.

Technical provenance & data boundaries
Serving source
HowSure Neon retained capture
Market identity
polymarket:condition-sha256:8c37db93fea43054b0e7bc47bfb36c7be7a04a14965c8fe78d4c9354cd2cc215
Observation digest
sha256:de52ffc48f7e9317383e7cf2d110503e4ea93225c1d1bca78e8c3ae443a53607
Read at
2026-10-19 09:36:56.731 UTC

The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.

Back to directory