US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?

Venue description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Separate resolution rules

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24h source volume

$15,144

Source liquidity

$105,690

Closing time

2026-12-01 04:59:00 UTC

Lifecycle in source

active

The source records a 24-hour change of −5 percentage points. This is an absolute probability-point change, not a relative percentage return or an explanation of why the price moved.

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• Read the captured venue description below for its stated conditions, then confirm the complete current rules and deadline at the venue. A separate resolution-rules field was not supplied.
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Serving source

HowSure Neon retained capture

Market identity

polymarket:condition-sha256:92f258b5ab79ff7bd0c4a38cbc5118209086f771a6b1476c6cd288c53958f125

Observation digest

sha256:aa0142e3593d7a679fa297705545943b1250c63153f3788b12f580e8629d1e30

Read at

2026-10-21 19:30:11.352 UTC

The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.