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Politics / Polymarket

France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?

Open analysis This exact market · retained observation

Archived market · last recorded observation

This market is outside the current HowSure catalog. The price, date and conditions below are retained from an earlier capture; they are not a current quote. Removal from the catalog does not establish closure, settlement or the final outcome.

Last recorded YES price

12.5%

Market-implied probability. The equivalent YES price in cents is shown in Analysis.

Last recorded at

Stale observation

24h change at that capture−8.5 percentage points

A recorded market price, not a HowSure forecast or an executable quote. Freshness describes its age, not its accuracy.

Read it in context

The recorded closing time is 2027-01-01 04:59:00 UTC. The captured lifecycle is “active”. Closing time and lifecycle alone do not establish final settlement.

Venue description is available; separate resolution rules were not supplied. The venue text and deciding authority have not been independently checked by HowSure.

Not supplied: freshness expiry, separate resolution rules field. These gaps are not filled with estimates.

What a market price can tell you
Market conditions & captured source

Venue description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Separate resolution rules

No separate resolution-rules field was supplied. The venue description above may contain resolution conditions; verify their complete current wording at the venue.

Open the captured venue/source URL ↗

A source link may be the venue’s market page. It does not prove the deciding authority. Verify the complete rules and that authority independently; HowSure has not verified or adjudicated the outcome.

Recorded metrics & what to check next
24h source volume
$159,309
Source liquidity
$117,669
Closing time
2027-01-01 04:59:00 UTC
Lifecycle in source
active

The source records a 24-hour change of −8.5 percentage points. This is an absolute probability-point change, not a relative percentage return or an explanation of why the price moved.

Before citing the observation

  • Read a newer, timestamped observation before describing the current market price.
  • Read the captured venue description below for its stated conditions, then confirm the complete current rules and deadline at the venue. A separate resolution-rules field was not supplied.
  • Identify and independently verify the deciding authority from the complete rules. A captured venue/source URL is only a source link, not proof of that authority; HowSure has not independently verified it.

Keep the observation with its context

This page currently shows the last retained observation. It is not an immutable archive; its contents can change or become unavailable. The note keeps the question, time, value and content digest from this read.

Preserve the exact question, source time and digest when quoting this observation.

Technical provenance & data boundaries
Serving source
HowSure Neon retained capture
Market identity
polymarket:condition-sha256:b1af6b10fcab709d104c88eca86801092e0a93e37b237eed60a4469c2deb6cce
Observation digest
sha256:4c5fb7b35eac79fb614e0134ded42f728bf6bb8fd5d96d3bc0588ec4b3806f52
Read at
2026-10-23 13:26:41.836 UTC

The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.

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