Politics / Polymarket
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?
Captured YES price
Market-implied probability. The equivalent YES price in cents is shown in Analysis.
Observed at
Stale observationWindow ended 2026-10-20 19:52:13.683 UTCReported 24h change+2 percentage points
A recorded market price, not a HowSure forecast or an executable quote. Freshness describes its age, not its accuracy.
Read it in context
The recorded closing time is 2026-10-26 03:59:00 UTC. The captured lifecycle is “active”. Closing time and lifecycle alone do not establish final settlement.
Venue description is available; separate resolution rules were not supplied. The venue text and deciding authority have not been independently checked by HowSure.
Not supplied: separate resolution rules field. These gaps are not filled with estimates.
What a market price can tell youMarket conditions & captured source
Venue description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Amapá. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Separate resolution rules
No separate resolution-rules field was supplied. The venue description above may contain resolution conditions; verify their complete current wording at the venue.
Open the captured venue/source URL ↗
A source link may be the venue’s market page. It does not prove the deciding authority. Verify the complete rules and that authority independently; HowSure has not verified or adjudicated the outcome.
Recorded metrics & what to check next
- 24h source volume
- $46,785
- Source liquidity
- $156,629
- Closing time
- 2026-10-26 03:59:00 UTC
- Lifecycle in source
- active
The source records a 24-hour change of +2 percentage points. This is an absolute probability-point change, not a relative percentage return or an explanation of why the price moved.
Before citing the observation
- Read a newer, timestamped observation before describing the current market price.
- Read the captured venue description below for its stated conditions, then confirm the complete current rules and deadline at the venue. A separate resolution-rules field was not supplied.
- Identify and independently verify the deciding authority from the complete rules. A captured venue/source URL is only a source link, not proof of that authority; HowSure has not independently verified it.
Keep the observation with its context
This link opens the current page. It is not an immutable archive; its contents can change or become unavailable. The note keeps the question, time, value and content digest from this read.
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Technical provenance & data boundaries
- Serving source
- HowSure Neon capture
- Market identity
polymarket:condition-sha256:c26ae99d0e2de8672a4375ed14b71905662b98e353698d3e8100903b107fdca6- Observation digest
sha256:277d95b0de334705532bf2ab39eaecc41203c29a443d7c298165b2c0f4d3691b- Read at
- 2026-10-20 20:07:05.760 UTC
The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.