Andy Burnham / Polymarket
Will there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
Captured YES price
Market-implied probability. The equivalent YES price in cents is shown in Analysis.
Observed at
Within freshness windowValid until 2026-10-31 21:26:44.126 UTCReported 24h changeNot recorded
A recorded market price, not a HowSure forecast or an executable quote. Freshness describes its age, not its accuracy.
Read it in context
The recorded closing time is 2028-01-01 04:59:00 UTC. The captured lifecycle is “active”. Closing time and lifecycle alone do not establish final settlement.
Venue description is available; separate resolution rules were not supplied. The venue text and deciding authority have not been independently checked by HowSure.
Not supplied: 24-hour change, separate resolution rules field. These gaps are not filled with estimates.
What a market price can tell youMarket conditions & captured source
Venue description
This market will resolve to the number of unique individuals who officially hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on the number of unique individuals to hold the position. For example, if an individual is appointed twice within the specified timeframe, they will only count once for resolution. To count for resolution, an individual must have been officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. An individual’s time of appointment will have no bearing on this market so long as the individual officially serves as Prime Minister within the specified timeframe. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market For clarity, Keir Starmer will count as one Prime Minister for the purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Separate resolution rules
No separate resolution-rules field was supplied. The venue description above may contain resolution conditions; verify their complete current wording at the venue.
Open the captured venue/source URL ↗
A source link may be the venue’s market page. It does not prove the deciding authority. Verify the complete rules and that authority independently; HowSure has not verified or adjudicated the outcome.
Recorded metrics & what to check next
- 24h source volume
- $10,002
- Source liquidity
- $125,742
- Closing time
- 2028-01-01 04:59:00 UTC
- Lifecycle in source
- active
The source does not provide a 24-hour change here; no change is inferred.
Before citing the observation
- Use Refresh observations after the valid-until time; prices are not refreshed in the background.
- Read the captured venue description below for its stated conditions, then confirm the complete current rules and deadline at the venue. A separate resolution-rules field was not supplied.
- Identify and independently verify the deciding authority from the complete rules. A captured venue/source URL is only a source link, not proof of that authority; HowSure has not independently verified it.
Keep the observation with its context
This link opens the current page. It is not an immutable archive; its contents can change or become unavailable. The note keeps the question, time, value and content digest from this read.
Preserve the exact question, source time and digest when quoting this observation.
Technical provenance & data boundaries
- Serving source
- HowSure Neon capture
- Market identity
polymarket:condition-sha256:c8d5856bed3e97490d9192bfe11edd7046d11ead22cc84e4b20ef2c0d2868ba4- Observation digest
sha256:fe70d4f6c3486e7f009d6082436f90e104d919282db1521d88050f5939294855- Read at
- 2026-10-31 21:26:11.703 UTC
The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.