House favorite on November 2 wins the election?

Venue description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party with the higher hourly odds value in the "House Control 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 11:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026 wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for a party for the specified window, that party's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window for a party (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, that party's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for either party in the "House Control 2026" listing before the specified window, including by removing either party from the listing, the most recent hourly odds values published for the two parties will be used. If the Democratic Party's and the Republican Party's hourly odds values are equal for that "Time Window (ET)", or if no hourly odds value has been published for either party between market creation and the end of the specified window, this market will resolve 50-50. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber's voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party's count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for the favorite is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the "House Control 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/house-control-2026.html and on each party's detail page, reached by clicking the party's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered. The resolution sources for control of the House will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Separate resolution rules

No separate resolution-rules field was supplied. The venue description above may contain resolution conditions; verify their complete current wording at the venue.

Open the captured venue/source URL ↗

A source link may be the venue’s market page. It does not prove the deciding authority. Verify the complete rules and that authority independently; HowSure has not verified or adjudicated the outcome.

24h source volume

$9,276

Source liquidity

$102,152

Closing time

2026-11-04 04:59:00 UTC

Lifecycle in source

active

The source records a 24-hour change of +0.5 percentage points. This is an absolute probability-point change, not a relative percentage return or an explanation of why the price moved.

Before citing the observation

• Use Refresh observations after the valid-until time; prices are not refreshed in the background.
• Read the captured venue description below for its stated conditions, then confirm the complete current rules and deadline at the venue. A separate resolution-rules field was not supplied.
• Identify and independently verify the deciding authority from the complete rules. A captured venue/source URL is only a source link, not proof of that authority; HowSure has not independently verified it.

Serving source

HowSure Neon capture

Market identity

polymarket:condition-sha256:c9795c4237b60608c63a8b5eca83c992c30c71425fdc25c8125e2176214c2764

Observation digest

sha256:6fd98ac6e558256b6e3f487b6662b263538d41455ab6a24e012c51089aca3f07

Read at

2026-10-21 20:33:01.942 UTC

The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.