Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Venue description

This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the United States Senate as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

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24h source volume

$2,899

Source liquidity

$140,114

Closing time

Not recorded

Lifecycle in source

active

The source records a 24-hour change of +0.15 percentage points. This is an absolute probability-point change, not a relative percentage return or an explanation of why the price moved.

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Serving source

HowSure Neon capture

Market identity

polymarket:condition-sha256:ed834af5e96a26c6e7ab8456a069ef9ef1eab7fb23eb1c181b124a5b23cff47f

Observation digest

sha256:70de8e2802309b4440740e842d924bdac2e7626468fe85645b153ba67c29ca37

Read at

2026-10-17 19:52:18.159 UTC

The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.