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Politics / Polymarket

Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?

Open analysis This exact market · retained observation

Archived market · last recorded observation

This market is outside the current HowSure catalog. The price, date and conditions below are retained from an earlier capture; they are not a current quote. Removal from the catalog does not establish closure, settlement or the final outcome.

Last recorded YES price

32%

Market-implied probability. The equivalent YES price in cents is shown in Analysis.

Last recorded at

Stale observation

24h change at that capture+0.15 percentage points

A recorded market price, not a HowSure forecast or an executable quote. Freshness describes its age, not its accuracy.

Read it in context

The recorded closing time is 2026-11-04 04:59:00 UTC. The captured lifecycle is “active”. Closing time and lifecycle alone do not establish final settlement.

Venue description is available; separate resolution rules were not supplied. The venue text and deciding authority have not been independently checked by HowSure.

Not supplied: freshness expiry, separate resolution rules field. These gaps are not filled with estimates.

What a market price can tell you
Market conditions & captured source

Venue description

The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.

Separate resolution rules

No separate resolution-rules field was supplied. The venue description above may contain resolution conditions; verify their complete current wording at the venue.

Open the captured venue/source URL ↗

A source link may be the venue’s market page. It does not prove the deciding authority. Verify the complete rules and that authority independently; HowSure has not verified or adjudicated the outcome.

Recorded metrics & what to check next
24h source volume
$1,802
Source liquidity
$377,319
Closing time
2026-11-04 04:59:00 UTC
Lifecycle in source
active

The source records a 24-hour change of +0.15 percentage points. This is an absolute probability-point change, not a relative percentage return or an explanation of why the price moved.

Before citing the observation

  • Read a newer, timestamped observation before describing the current market price.
  • Read the captured venue description below for its stated conditions, then confirm the complete current rules and deadline at the venue. A separate resolution-rules field was not supplied.
  • Identify and independently verify the deciding authority from the complete rules. A captured venue/source URL is only a source link, not proof of that authority; HowSure has not independently verified it.

Keep the observation with its context

This page currently shows the last retained observation. It is not an immutable archive; its contents can change or become unavailable. The note keeps the question, time, value and content digest from this read.

Preserve the exact question, source time and digest when quoting this observation.

Technical provenance & data boundaries
Serving source
HowSure Neon retained capture
Market identity
polymarket:condition-sha256:ee3096dab739ab19af720e57daf91adc185169fd2053f8c26fea40d0fe26ea6a
Observation digest
sha256:16ced571cba054af75ced13b62f85e1e2fb64c18ba96e3511869a7b6ba429e9c
Read at
2026-10-16 20:21:01.964 UTC

The digest identifies captured content; it does not certify factual accuracy or provide a permanently retrievable version.

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